Game Time: 7/31, 01:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face off against the New York Yankees in a compelling AL East matchup. Both teams are looking to gain ground in the standings as they battle through the dog days of the MLB season. Betting odds are not available for this game, adding an element of uncertainty for bettors.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Pepiot vs Marcus Stroman
Ryan Pepiot (TB):
Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 95.0 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 86.3 mph), Slider (18% usage, 89.1 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 81.1 mph), Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph)
Ryan Pepiot is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying primarily on his four-seam fastball. The Yankees lineup has averaged .250 this season with a projected xBA of .250 against Pepiot's pitch mix, indicating a relatively neutral matchup.
Marcus Stroman (NYY):
Sinker (37% usage, 89.7 mph), Slurve (20% usage, 82.1 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 88.8 mph), Splitter (10% usage, 82.7 mph), Slider (7% usage, 84.4 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 77.9 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage, 89.6 mph)
Stroman is a pitch-mix artist, featuring a variety of off-speed pitches. The Rays lineup averages .270 this season, with a projected xBA of .276 versus Stroman's arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for Tampa Bay's hitters.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Rays lineup averages .270 this season, projecting to .276 against Stroman's arsenal.
Nick Fortes sees the biggest increase: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .321 (+84 points), Season K% 15.3% → Arsenal K% 10.6% (-4.7%)
Jonathan Aranda faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .315 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-66 points), Season K% 24.9% → Arsenal K% 30.4% (+5.5%)
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .250 against Pepiot's arsenal.
Paul Goldschmidt experiences a moderate increase: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .304 (+21 points), Season K% 17.5% → Arsenal K% 19.6% (+2.1%)
Giancarlo Stanton sees a notable decrease: Season BA .275 → xBA vs arsenal .209 (-66 points), Season K% 31.6% → Arsenal K% 32.8% (+1.2%)
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rays' projected K-rate is 16.6% vs Stroman — down 2.6% from their 19.3% season average, indicating a potential contact play.
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 25.7% vs Pepiot — up 2.0% from their 23.7% season average, which is less significant for strikeout prop considerations.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Nick Fortes (.237 → .321, +84 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Jonathan Aranda (.315 → .249, -66 points) = NO LEAN ❌ (.249 < .300)
Paul Goldschmidt (.283 → .304, +21 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria due to slight increase above .300)
Giancarlo Stanton (.275 → .209, -66 points) = NO LEAN ❌ (.209 < .300)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant strikeout prop leans as neither team meets the threshold of K% > 25% with a > 4% increase.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Nick Fortes - his .321 xBA against Stroman's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +84 point boost.
Paul Goldschmidt also presents a lean opportunity with a .304 xBA versus Pepiot, surpassing our criteria with a +21 point increase.
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.
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