Game Time: 7/28, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Tampa Bay Rays head to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees in what promises to be a compelling matchup. Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays, while the Yankees counter with Cam Schlittler. Betting odds for this game are currently unavailable, but there are intriguing angles to explore, especially with the unique pitching arsenals on display.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Cam Schlittler
Drew Rasmussen (TB):
Rasmussen employs a varied pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 95.8 mph), Cutter (31% usage, 90.3 mph), Sinker (25% usage, 95.4 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 84.7 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 89.2 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Rasmussen can keep hitters guessing, but the Yankees lineup hits .276 on the season and projects a .276 xBA against his arsenal.
Cam Schlittler (NYY):
Schlittler features a power-heavy arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage, 97.8 mph), Slider (28% usage, 90.7 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 83.3 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 87.2 mph), and Sinker (3% usage, 96.6 mph). The Rays lineup averages .266 on the season but projects a .253 xBA against Schlittler's arsenal, indicating potential difficulties in making solid contact.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Rays lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .253 against Schlittler's pitches. Chandler Simpson shows a notable increase, with a season BA of .307 improving to an xBA of .346 (+39 points), alongside a decrease in K% from 8.5% to 6.7% (-1.8%). On the downside, Jonathan Aranda sees a decrease with his season BA of .312 dropping to .281 against Schlittler (-31 points), with an increase in K% from 25.0% to 29.1% (+4.1%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup, with a season average of .249, projects to a .276 xBA against Rasmussen. Trent Grisham benefits from a significant boost, with his BA jumping from .252 to .340 (+88 points) and a decrease in K% from 21.7% to 13.7% (-8.0%). Meanwhile, Giancarlo Stanton's BA decreases slightly from .276 to .263 (-13 points), although his K% improves from 30.9% to 22.0% (-8.9%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rays' projected K-rate is 23.6% against Schlittler, up 3.6% from their 20.0% season average, suggesting a slight elevation in strikeout potential. Conversely, the Yankees' projected K-rate is 20.8% against Rasmussen, down 3.4% from their 24.2% season average, indicating potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Chandler Simpson's projected xBA of .346 against Schlittler is above our .300 threshold with a notable +39 point increase. This positions him as a potential lean for prop betting.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No team meets the criteria for a strikeout prop lean, as neither team's projected K-rate increases enough above the 25% threshold.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Chandler Simpson - his .346 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +39 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
