Game Time: 7/11, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Tampa Bay Rays face off against the Boston Red Sox, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective divisions. With Drew Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays and Hunter Dobbins pitching for the Red Sox, the game promises intriguing matchups. Betting odds are currently unavailable for this game, adding an element of suspense as bettors analyze the data-driven angles.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs. Hunter Dobbins
Drew Rasmussen (TB):
Rasmussen utilizes a diverse pitch selection comprising a Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 95.7 mph), a Cutter (30% usage, 90.3 mph), and a Sinker (25% usage, 95.4 mph), complemented by a Sweeper (5% usage, 84.7 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 89.3 mph). This pitch-mix artist offers a blend of velocity and movement that challenges hitters. The Red Sox lineup averages .245 this season with a projected xBA of .245 vs. Rasmussen's arsenal.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS):
Dobbins brings a velocity-heavy approach with his arsenal, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 95.5 mph), Slider (27% usage, 87.6 mph), and Curveball (12% usage, 78.6 mph), along with a Sweeper (10% usage, 81.2 mph), Splitter (9% usage, 90.5 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 94.8 mph). The Rays lineup averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .252 vs. Dobbins' arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Rays lineup averages .278 this season but projects to .252 vs. Dobbins' arsenal. Chandler Simpson shows a notable advantage: Season BA .310 → xBA vs. arsenal .331 (+21 points), Season K% 9.6% → Arsenal K% 12.3% (+2.7%). Meanwhile, Ha-Seong Kim faces a significant decrease: Season BA .333 → xBA vs. arsenal .234 (-99 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 29.8% (+5.9%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Red Sox lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .245 vs. Rasmussen's arsenal. Trevor Story shows an improvement: Season BA .251 → xBA vs. arsenal .275 (+24 points), Season K% 28.4% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (-5.3%). Conversely, Carlos Narváez sees a decrease: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .146 (-104 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 14.4% (-8.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rays' projected K-rate is 24.0% vs. Dobbins — up 4.3% from their 19.7% season average. The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 18.5% vs. Rasmussen — down 5.1% from their 23.6% season average. These adjustments indicate a potential strikeout prop value for Dobbins while suggesting contact opportunities for the Red Sox against Rasmussen.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Chandler Simpson's xBA of .331 against Dobbins' arsenal is over .300, with a boost of +21 points, which meets our criteria for a lean. Conversely, none of the other batters in the Rays lineup meet the strict conditions for a betting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Rays' projected K-rate against Dobbins is 24.0%, which, despite being higher than their season average, does not meet our threshold for a strikeout lean. No significant edge exists for a strikeout prop on the Red Sox side either.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Chandler Simpson - his .331 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +21 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.
