Game Time: 7/12, 04:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
In this AL East showdown, the Tampa Bay Rays face off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. With the Red Sox entering as a -194 favorite and the Rays as a +158 underdog, the betting market heavily favors Boston with 84% of the money backing them. This matchup centers on the pitching duel between Shane Baz for the Rays and Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs Garrett Crochet
Shane Baz (TB):
Baz brings a robust arsenal with his Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 96.8 mph), Curveball (29% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 89.6 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 89.1 mph), and Slider (5% usage, 86.7 mph). He is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse pitch mix, making him a challenging opponent for hitters. The Boston lineup, however, averages .251 this season and projects a slightly lower xBA of .240 against Baz's mix.
Garrett Crochet (BOS):
Crochet counters with a Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 96.1 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Sinker (13% usage, 95.5 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 82.6 mph), and Changeup (5% usage, 88.5 mph). Known for his power pitches, Crochet will face a Tampa Bay lineup that averages .250 this season, projecting a slightly better xBA of .263 against his arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Rays lineup averages .250 this season but projects to a .263 xBA against Crochet's arsenal. Notably, Ha-Seong Kim shows a significant increase in expected performance: Season BA .333 → xBA vs arsenal .367 (+34 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 17.4% (-6.5%). Conversely, José Caballero experiences a steep decline: Season BA .227 → xBA vs arsenal .184 (-43 points), Season K% 29.7% → Arsenal K% 37.6% (+8.0%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
Boston's lineup sees a slight decline, averaging .252 this season and projecting a .240 xBA against Baz's arsenal. Jarren Duran shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .260 → xBA vs arsenal .202 (-58 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 29.1% (+5.2%). Wilyer Abreu offers a modest improvement: Season BA .257 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+25 points), though it remains below the .300 threshold.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rays’ projected K-rate is 21.9% vs. Crochet — down 1.6% from their 23.5% season average, suggesting limited strikeout prop value. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s projected K-rate stands at 22.9% vs. Baz — down 0.6% from their 23.4% season average, also indicating minimal strikeout prop value.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No Tampa Bay batter meets the criteria of an xBA over .300 combined with a boost of more than +20 points against Crochet's arsenal. Similarly, no Boston batter exceeds the .300 xBA threshold against Baz.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team's projected strikeout rate against the opposing pitcher surpasses the 25% mark with a significant increase of more than 4%, eliminating strong strikeout prop considerations.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
