September 14, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Rangers vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 14)

Last updated: September 14, 2025

Game Time: 9/14, 01:40PM

Game Preview

The Texas Rangers face off against the New York Mets in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup at Citi Field. With the Mets favored at -172 and the Rangers as +140 underdogs, 74% of the betting money is backing the Mets, indicating strong confidence in the home team's chances.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Jacob Latz (TEX) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)

Jacob Latz (TEX):

Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 94.3 mph)
Changeup (24% usage, 84.7 mph)
Slider (21% usage, 84.3 mph)
Curveball (6% usage, 78.1 mph)

Jacob Latz is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a primary reliance on his four-seam fastball, complemented by a mix of off-speed pitches. The Mets lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .255 against Latz's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the pitcher.

Nolan McLean (NYM):

Sweeper (27% usage, 85.4 mph)
Sinker (26% usage, 94.7 mph)
Curveball (18% usage, 80.1 mph)
Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage, 95.8 mph)
Changeup (8% usage, 86.8 mph)
Cutter (7% usage, 90.7 mph)

Nolan McLean utilizes a diverse pitch mix, featuring a balanced approach with his sweeper and sinker. The Rangers lineup averages .248 but projects to .255 against McLean's arsenal, suggesting a potentially closer contest than season averages might indicate.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Rangers vs Nolan McLean:

The Rangers lineup averages .248 this season but projects to .255 vs McLean's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Alejandro Osuna: Season BA .195 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (+78 points), Season K% 19.1% → Arsenal K% 15.2% (-3.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Josh Smith: Season BA .296 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-46 points), Season K% 20.4% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+2.7%)

For Mets vs Jacob Latz:

The Mets lineup averages .261 this season with a projected xBA of .255 vs Latz's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .313 (+49 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (+1.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Jose Siri: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .077 (-173 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 46.8% (+24.3%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Rangers' projected K-rate is 20.3% vs Nolan McLean — up 0.6% from their 19.7% season average.
The Mets' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Jacob Latz — up 3.6% from their 19.9% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Alejandro Osuna (.195 → .273, +78 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in strikeout props for this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Alejandro Osuna presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a notable increase in expected batting average.
No clear strikeout prop opportunities as team K-rates do not meet our criteria.
Umpire assignment is unknown, adding uncertainty to the prop betting landscape.
Overall, slight batting edge leans towards Rangers' Osuna against McLean's diverse pitching.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rangers vs Mets game? A: Alejandro Osuna meets our strict betting criteria, offering a promising batting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess the impact.

Q: What time is the Rangers vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/14, 01:40PM.

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