Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Rangers vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)
Last updated: September 13, 2025Game Time: 9/13, 04:10PM
Matchup Setup
The Texas Rangers will face off against the New York Mets in a key matchup as the MLB season heats up. According to DraftKings, the NY Mets are favored at −163, with the Rangers as +133 underdogs. Interestingly, 54% of the betting money is backing the Rangers, indicating potential value in the underdog.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Patrick Corbin vs Brandon Sproat
Patrick Corbin (TEX):
- Slider (34% usage, 80.2 mph)
- Sinker (29% usage, 91.5 mph)
- Cutter (24% usage, 87.4 mph)
- Changeup (9% usage, 81.4 mph)
- Four-Seam (3% usage, 91.6 mph)
- Curveball (1% usage, 68.7 mph)
Patrick Corbin is a pitch-mix artist, relying heavily on his slider and sinker to keep hitters off balance. The Mets lineup has been batting .261 this season but projects a slightly higher xBA of .265 against Corbin's varied arsenal.
Brandon Sproat (NYM):
- Mixed arsenal
Brandon Sproat does not have detailed pitch usage available, but he faces a Rangers lineup that averages .250 this season with no change in their projected performance against his arsenal (.250 xBA).
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Rangers vs Brandon Sproat:
- The Rangers lineup averages .250 this season, maintaining the same projection against Sproat's mixed arsenal.
For the Mets vs Patrick Corbin:
- The Mets lineup averages .261 this season and projects to improve slightly to .265 against Corbin's arsenal.
- Pete Alonso shows the biggest improvement with a season BA of .267 and a projected xBA of .317 (+50 points), while his K% drops significantly from 22.7% to 16.0% (-6.7%).
- Jose Siri shows a drop with a season BA of .250 and a projected xBA of .183 (-67 points), and his K% increases from 22.5% to 24.1% (+1.6%).
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Rangers' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Brandon Sproat, consistent with their season average of 22.5%.
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 18.3% vs Patrick Corbin, down 1.7% from their season average of 20.0%, suggesting a potential for increased contact.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Pete Alonso (.267 → .317, +50 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Player Advantage: Pete Alonso shows a strong batting advantage against Corbin, potentially worth a prop play.
- Pitcher Props: No significant strikeout prop opportunities present themselves for this matchup.
- Umpire Impact: Umpire assignment is not available, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall Recommendation: Consider player props on Pete Alonso due to his projected batting advantage.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rangers vs Mets game? A: Pete Alonso meets our strict betting criteria with a strong projected increase in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving tendencies unknown.
Q: What time is the Rangers vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/13, 04:10PM.
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