Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Rangers vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 12)
Last updated: September 12, 2025Game Time: 9/12, 07:10PM
Game Overview
The Texas Rangers face off against the New York Mets in a matchup that pits two contrasting pitching styles against each other. While betting odds are not available for this game, the focus will be on the pitching prowess of Jacob deGrom and Jonah Tong. Both teams will look to exploit their respective lineup advantages against these starters.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs Jonah Tong
Jacob deGrom (TEX):
Jacob deGrom brings a diverse pitch arsenal with a high velocity focus: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 97.5 mph), Slider (38% usage, 90.3 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 89.8 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 80.7 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy style, deGrom aims to overpower batters with his fastball and slider combination. The Mets lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .260 against deGrom's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the Mets in terms of contact.Jonah Tong (NYM):
Jonah Tong relies heavily on his four-seam fastball: Four-Seam (58% usage, 95.9 mph), Changeup (27% usage, 86.5 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.1 mph), Slider (3% usage, 87.7 mph). With a fastball-first approach, Tong's arsenal is designed to keep hitters off-balance with speed changes. The Rangers lineup averages .245 this season but projects to .235 against Tong, suggesting a challenging matchup for Texas hitters.Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Rangers vs Jonah Tong: The Rangers lineup averages .245 this season but projects to .235 against Tong's arsenal. Key performers show:
- Alejandro Osuna: Season BA .189 → xBA vs arsenal .299 (+110 points), Season K% 20.2% → Arsenal K% 21.8% (+1.6%)
- Michael Helman: Season BA .255 → xBA vs arsenal .132 (-123 points), Season K% 16.1% → Arsenal K% 29.6% (+13.5%)
For Mets vs Jacob deGrom: The Mets lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .260 against deGrom. Key performers show:
- Juan Soto: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .294 (+30 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 22.5% (+3.0%)
- Pete Alonso: Season BA .269 → xBA vs arsenal .262 (-7 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 27.1% (+4.7%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Rangers' projected K-rate is 23.9% vs Jonah Tong — up 3.8% from their 20.1% season average, indicating potential for higher strikeouts.
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Jacob deGrom — up 1.2% from their 21.3% season average, suggesting moderate strikeout potential.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Alejandro Osuna (.189 → .299, +110 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for strikeout props.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Alejandro Osuna shows a significant batting advantage against Jonah Tong's arsenal, meeting our criteria for a strong batting prop.
- Both teams exhibit increased strikeout tendencies against the opposing pitchers, but not enough to trigger a strikeout prop alert.
- Without umpire data, betting volatility remains a concern, reducing confidence in strikeout and walk props.
- Overall, the game leans slightly towards contact advantages for the Mets and potential batting props for select Rangers.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rangers vs Mets game? A: Alejandro Osuna presents the most compelling betting prop opportunity with a projected increase in batting average against Jonah Tong.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which increases betting uncertainty.
Q: What time is the Rangers vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/12 at 07:10PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
