September 10, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Pirates vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 10)

Last updated: September 10, 2025

Game Time: 9/10, 06:35PM

Game Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates face off against the Baltimore Orioles, with the Pirates entering as the favorites. DraftKings lists the Pirates at -156 and the Orioles at +128, with a hefty 80% of the money backing Pittsburgh. This matchup promises to be intriguing, particularly with the dynamic pitching duel set to unfold.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Tyler Wells

Paul Skenes (PIT):

Paul Skenes is a power pitcher with a diverse array of pitches. His arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 98.2 mph), a Sweeper (16% usage, 84.5 mph), a Splitter (14% usage, 93.7 mph), a Changeup (10% usage, 88.6 mph), a Sinker (10% usage, 97.7 mph), a Slider (6% usage, 85.2 mph), and a Curveball (5% usage, 83.8 mph). This velocity-heavy approach is complemented by his ability to mix pitches effectively. The Orioles' lineup has struggled against similar styles, with a season average of .246 but a projected xBA of .234 against Skenes' arsenal.

Tyler Wells (BAL):

Tyler Wells features a mixed arsenal, which can be challenging to predict and hit when executed well. However, the Pirates' lineup maintains a consistent performance, averaging .250 both in the season and against Wells' pitch mix. This indicates the Pirates may not see a significant disadvantage facing Wells.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Pirates vs Tyler Wells:

The Pirates lineup averages .250 this season and projects to maintain this average against Wells' arsenal.
No significant batter changes in xBA are present from available data.

For the Orioles vs Paul Skenes:

The Orioles lineup averages .246 this season but projects to a lower .234 against Skenes' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Gunnar Henderson boasts a season BA of .274 → xBA vs arsenal .302 (+28 points), Season K% 21.6% → Arsenal K% 23.2% (+1.6%).
Biggest Decrease: Dylan Beavers sees a notable decline, with a season BA of .291 → xBA vs arsenal .196 (-95 points), Season K% 29.4% → Arsenal K% 46.0% (+16.6%).

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Wells — steady at their 22.5% season average.
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 30.08% vs Skenes — up 5.36% from their 24.72% season average. This spike suggests potential K prop value.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Gunnar Henderson (.274 → .302, +28 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Paul Skenes strikeout OVER - Orioles' K-rate jumps to 30.08% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Gunnar Henderson is a promising batting prop with a significant boost in xBA.
Paul Skenes offers a strong strikeout prop opportunity given the Orioles' increased projected K-rate.
Umpire Influence: TBA assignment adds uncertainty and potential volatility.
Overall, bettors should consider player prop opportunities on Henderson and Skenes given the statistical edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Orioles game? A: Gunnar Henderson shows the best potential with a projected xBA increase to .302.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, which means we cannot assess its impact.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Orioles game? A: The game is set for 9/10, 06:35PM.

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