Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Pirates vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 09)
Last updated: September 09, 2025
Game Time: 9/9, 06:35PM
Game Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to face the Baltimore Orioles in a compelling matchup. DraftKings lists the Orioles as a -157 favorite, with the Pirates as +128 underdogs. A significant 62% of the betting money is backing the Orioles, highlighting a strong belief in their chances to secure a win.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Mike Burrows vs Kyle Bradish
Mike Burrows (PIT):
Mike Burrows crafts a diverse arsenal featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 87.1 mph), Slider (20% usage, 86.9 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.3 mph), and Sinker (5% usage, 95.6 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Burrows utilizes his fastball to set the tone, complemented by effective secondary pitches. The Orioles lineup is averaging .246 this season and projects a xBA of .244 against Burrows' varied pitch mix.Kyle Bradish (BAL):
Kyle Bradish, known for his power pitching, relies on a Sinker (38% usage, 95.0 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 94.7 mph), Slider (22% usage, 87.0 mph), and Curveball (13% usage, 83.9 mph). The Pirates lineup, with a season average of .252, projects to slightly improve to a .256 xBA against Bradish's arsenal, indicating a potential for offensive success.Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Pirates vs Kyle Bradish:
- The Pirates lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .256 vs Bradish's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jared Triolo: Season BA .225 → xBA vs Bradish .278 (+53 points), Season K% 18.4% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (-2.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Nick Gonzales: Season BA .276 → xBA vs Bradish .253 (-23 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 18.2% (+0.3%)
For Orioles vs Mike Burrows:
- The Orioles lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .244 vs Burrows' arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Samuel Basallo: Season BA .204 → xBA vs Burrows .267 (+63 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 24.7% (+3.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .276 → xBA vs Burrows .233 (-43 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 27.5% (+7.4%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Pirates' projected K-rate is 23.7% vs Bradish — up 1.1% from their 22.6% season average.
- The Orioles' projected K-rate is 26.7% vs Burrows — up 2.0% from their 24.7% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
- 📢 Prop Alert: Jared Triolo (.225 → .278, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!
- 📢 Prop Alert: Samuel Basallo (.204 → .267, +63 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant pitcher prop opportunities meet our strict criteria in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jared Triolo and Samuel Basallo present strong batting prop opportunities with significant increases in expected batting averages.
- Both teams show slight increases in projected strikeout rates, but not enough to suggest strong K-prop plays.
- Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to potential prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Orioles game? A: Jared Triolo and Samuel Basallo both meet our strict betting criteria for hitting props.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so this is currently unknown.
Q: What time is the Pirates vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/9, 06:35PM.
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