Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Pirates vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 17)
Last updated: August 17, 2025
Game Time: 8/17, 02:20PM
Game Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in an exciting NL Central matchup. Currently, DraftKings lists the Cubs as -199 favorites, with the Pirates priced at +162 underdogs. A significant 71% of the betting money is backing the Cubs, indicating strong public confidence in the home team.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs Javier Assad (CHC)
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT):
Carmen Mlodzinski brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a mix of power and finesse. His pitch types include:
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 96.0 mph)
- Slider (20% usage, 88.4 mph)
- Sinker (14% usage, 95.6 mph)
- Sweeper (13% usage, 83.8 mph)
- Changeup (12% usage, 87.5 mph)
- Curveball (3% usage, 84.5 mph)
- Cutter (0% usage, 94.9 mph)
Mlodzinski relies heavily on his fastball and slider combination, making him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Cubs lineup has a season average of .258 but projects to hit .250 against Mlodzinski's arsenal, suggesting a slight advantage for the Pirates' pitcher in neutralizing their offensive threats.
Javier Assad (CHC):
Javier Assad utilizes a mixed arsenal approach, adapting his pitch selection based on the hitter's tendencies. The Pirates lineup, which averages .250 on the season, is expected to maintain the same average against Assad's diverse pitch mix. This indicates a balanced matchup where neither side holds a clear edge.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Pirates vs Javier Assad:
The Pirates lineup averages .250 this season and projects to .250 against Assad, showing no significant edge.
For Cubs vs Carmen Mlodzinski:
The Cubs lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .250 against Mlodzinski. Key performance changes include:
- Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .226 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (+24 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+0.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .226 (-37 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 18.6% (+4.2%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Pirates' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Javier Assad — matching their 22.5% season average, indicating no notable change in strikeout tendencies.
- Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.0% vs Carmen Mlodzinski — up 2.7% from their 19.3% season average, suggesting a moderate increase in strikeout potential.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No individual batters from either team meet our strict betting lean criteria for batting props.
⚡ K Prop Alert: Carmen Mlodzinski strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 22.0% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ shows a notable batting edge against Mlodzinski, while Kyle Tucker faces a disadvantage.
- Carmen Mlodzinski presents a viable strikeout prop opportunity with the Cubs' increased K-rate.
- Umpire assignment uncertainty adds volatility to prop bets.
- Overall, focus on Mlodzinski's strikeout potential for betting value.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria for batting props, but Carmen Mlodzinski's strikeout potential is notable.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving prop bets with higher volatility.
Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/17, 02:20PM.
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