August 16, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Pirates vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 16)

Last updated: August 16, 2025

Game Time: 8/16, 02:20PM

Game Overview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Chicago Cubs in a highly anticipated matchup at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs favored at -238 and 89% of the betting public backing them, the Pirates enter as +191 underdogs. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter matchups that could define the outcome.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Mike Burrows vs Shota Imanaga

Mike Burrows (PIT)

Mike Burrows brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 95.3 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 87.0 mph), Slider (20% usage, 86.5 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.2 mph), and Sinker (3% usage, 95.4 mph). Burrows is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on his fastball and changeup to disrupt hitters' timing. However, the Cubs lineup poses a challenge, averaging .259 this season with a projected xBA of .241 against Burrows' pitch mix.

Shota Imanaga (CHC)

Shota Imanaga is a master of mixing speeds and locations with his arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 90.8 mph), Splitter (33% usage, 82.8 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 80.3 mph), Curveball (2% usage, 71.6 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 87.6 mph). The Pirates lineup averages .236 this season but projects to hit .225 against Imanaga's well-distributed pitch offerings.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Pirates vs Shota Imanaga:

The Pirates lineup averages .236 this season but projects to .225 against Imanaga's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Tommy Pham: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .314 (+51 points), Season K% 22.3% → Arsenal K% 19.8% (-2.5%).
Biggest Decrease: Nick Gonzales: Season BA .275 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (-70 points), Season K% 16.3% → Arsenal K% 13.9% (-2.4%).

For the Cubs vs Mike Burrows:

The Cubs lineup averages .259 this season and projects to .241 against Burrows' arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .186 (-77 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (+3.1%).

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 28.7% vs Shota Imanaga — up 5.8% from their 22.9% season average, indicating a potential for higher strikeouts. Conversely, the Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Mike Burrows — up 4.3% from their 19.8% season average, suggesting a similar trend of increased strikeouts.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Pham (.263 → .314, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Shota Imanaga strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 28.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Tommy Pham offers a strong batting prop opportunity against Shota Imanaga, with a significant xBA increase.
Shota Imanaga is a candidate for a strikeout prop, given the Pirates' elevated strikeout projection.
The umpire's impact is unknown, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, the Cubs are favored, but specific player matchups offer betting value.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: Tommy Pham meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .314.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making this aspect uncertain.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/16 at 02:20PM.

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