September 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Pirates vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)

Last updated: September 26, 2025

Game Time: 9/26, 07:15PM

Game Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face the Atlanta Braves in a highly anticipated matchup. The Braves enter as favorites with a -165 line according to DraftKings, while the Pirates are underdogs at +135. With 77% of the betting money backing the Braves, this game is drawing significant interest from bettors.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs Joey Wentz

Mitch Keller (PIT):

Mitch Keller is known for his diverse pitching arsenal which includes a Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 94.0 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 82.3 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 92.8 mph), Slider (14% usage, 86.9 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 77.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.2 mph), and Cutter (0% usage, 92.4 mph). Keller's extensive pitch mix allows him to adapt to various situations, making him a versatile threat on the mound. The Braves lineup averages .252 this season and has a projected xBA of .245 versus Keller's arsenal.

Joey Wentz (ATL):

Joey Wentz employs a primary Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 93.4 mph), complemented by a Slider (27% usage, 85.0 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 79.3 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 86.9 mph), and Changeup (3% usage, 86.1 mph). Wentz’s reliance on his fastball combined with his slider makes him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Pirates lineup, averaging .238 this season, projects to an xBA of .259 against Wentz's offerings.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Pirates vs Joey Wentz:

The Pirates lineup averages .238 this season, projecting to .259 against Wentz's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Nick Yorke, Season BA .217 → xBA vs arsenal .291 (+74 points), Season K% 22.2% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (+4.0%).
Biggest Decrease: Joey Bart, Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .221 (-27 points), Season K% 28.4% → Arsenal K% 33.5% (+5.1%).

For Braves vs Mitch Keller:

The Braves lineup averages .253 this season, projecting to .245 against Keller's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jr. Acuña, Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .274 (+24 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 26.9% (+4.4%).
Biggest Decrease: Matt Olson, Season BA .272 → xBA vs arsenal .239 (-33 points), Season K% 24.3% → Arsenal K% 26.8% (+2.5%).

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.4% vs Wentz — up 3.1% from their 23.3% season average, indicating a potential for increased strikeouts.
The Braves' projected K-rate is 24.2% vs Keller — up 2.1% from their 22.1% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Nick Yorke (.217 → .291, +74 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Joey Wentz strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 26.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Nick Yorke presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant xBA increase against Joey Wentz.
Joey Wentz's strikeout potential is heightened against the Pirates' lineup, making his strikeout prop appealing.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, the game presents betting opportunities with specific player matchups and pitcher props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Braves game? A: Nick Yorke meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in xBA against Joey Wentz.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess their impact.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/26, 07:15PM.

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