Game Time: 7/13, 02:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face the Minnesota Twins in an intriguing MLB matchup. DraftKings has the Twins as a -142 favorite, while the Pirates come in as +116 underdogs. Notably, 64% of the betting money is backing the Twins, highlighting a significant public lean toward Minnesota.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs. Simeon Richardson
Mitch Keller (PIT):
Mitch Keller brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound for the Pirates, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage, 94.0 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.1 mph), Slider (17% usage, 87.0 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 92.9 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 77.5 mph), and Changeup (7% usage, 89.1 mph). The Twins lineup has averaged .244 this season, with a projected .259 xBA against Keller's arsenal, indicating a potential struggle for Keller.
Simeon Richardson (MIN):
Simeon Richardson relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph) and Slider (29% usage, 85.3 mph), complemented by a Curveball (15% usage, 77.6 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 83.2 mph), and Splitter (3% usage, 86.6 mph). The Pirates lineup averages .249 this season, but their projected xBA against Richardson's pitches drops to .233, suggesting a challenging matchup for Pittsburgh's batters.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Pirates lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .233 against Richardson's arsenal. Bryan Reynolds shows the biggest increase in xBA, moving from a season average of .225 to .267 against Richardson (+42 points), though his strikeout rate also rises from 27.2% to 31.8% (+4.6%). On the downside, Henry Davis sees a decrease, with his season average of .213 dropping to .162 against Richardson (-51 points), while his strikeout rate climbs from 31.1% to 37.0% (+5.9%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Twins lineup averages .245 this season and sees a slight increase to a .259 projection against Keller. Kody Clemens stands out with a significant increase, rising from a season average of .216 to .324 against Keller (+108 points), while his strikeout rate decreases from 25.0% to 21.2% (-3.8%). Byron Buxton, however, experiences a decline from a season average of .286 to .263 against Keller (-23 points), with a minor increase in strikeout rate from 26.4% to 28.4% (+2.0%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.6% versus Richardson, up 4.4% from their 22.2% season average, indicating potential value in strikeout props. Conversely, the Twins' projected K-rate is 22.1% against Keller, slightly above their season average of 21.7%, showing minimal change and limited strikeout prop value.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Kody Clemens (.216 → .324, +108 points) meets the criteria with an xBA above .300 and a significant boost, making him a potential lean for a batting prop.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.6% against Richardson, up 4.4% from their season average, meeting the criteria for a potential strikeout over prop.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Kody Clemens - his .324 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +108 point boost. Additionally, our final lean would be Simeon Richardson strikeout OVER - Pittsburgh's projected K-rate jumps to 26.6% vs. Richardson, up 4.4% from their 22.2% season average.
