Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Phillies vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 07)
Last updated: September 07, 2025
Game Time: 9/7, 01:40PM
Brief Intro
The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Miami Marlins in a National League East showdown. With the DraftKings betting line showing the Phillies as a −132 favorite, and 90% of the money backing them, this matchup is ripe for betting intrigue. The Marlins are the underdogs at +109, making them an enticing option for value seekers.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker vs Adam Mazur
Taijuan Walker (PHI):
Taijuan Walker brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound:
- Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 94.0 mph)
- Cutter (18% usage, 90.6 mph)
- Sinker (16% usage, 93.9 mph)
- Slider (15% usage, 87.5 mph)
- Curveball (13% usage, 77.5 mph)
- Changeup (7% usage, 89.9 mph)
- Sweeper (7% usage, 80.7 mph)
Walker is a classic pitch-mix artist, relying on a variety of offerings to keep hitters off balance. The Marlins lineup has averaged .260 this season but projects to a .261 xBA against Walker's arsenal.
Adam Mazur (MIA):
Adam Mazur counters with his own potent arsenal:
- Slider (31% usage, 87.0 mph)
- Sinker (19% usage, 94.4 mph)
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage, 95.2 mph)
- Curveball (13% usage, 82.7 mph)
- Sweeper (10% usage, 83.8 mph)
- Changeup (8% usage, 89.1 mph)
Mazur's velocity-heavy style could pose challenges for the Phillies, who average .263 this season but project a .257 xBA against Mazur's pitches.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Phillies vs Adam Mazur:
The Phillies lineup, averaging .263 this season, projects to a .257 xBA against Mazur. Key player deviations include:
- Max Kepler: Season BA .216 → xBA vs Mazur .245 (+29 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 18.0% (-0.2%)
For Marlins vs Taijuan Walker:
The Marlins, with a season average of .270, project a .261 xBA against Walker's arsenal. Key player deviations include:
- Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs Walker .284 (+34 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.4% (-7.1%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Phillies: Their projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Mazur — up 0.9% from their 21.3% season average.
- Marlins: Their projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Walker — up 3.5% from their 16.9% season average.
The increased strikeout potential for both teams suggests possible value in strikeout props.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our criteria in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Max Kepler presents a notable advantage against Mazur's arsenal, suggesting a potential contact play.
- Agustín Ramírez shows strong batting upside against Walker, making him a prop candidate.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop expectations.
- Overall, the Phillies are favored, but key player matchups provide intriguing prop opportunities.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Phillies vs Marlins game? A: Agustín Ramírez emerges as a strong prop candidate with a projected xBA increase of +34 points.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.
Q: What time is the Phillies vs Marlins game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/7, 01:40PM.
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