September 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Phillies vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)

Last updated: September 17, 2025

Game Time: 9/17, 10:10PM

Today's Setup

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a late-night showdown at Dodger Stadium. With Blake Snell on the mound for the Dodgers and Jesús Luzardo pitching for the Phillies, the matchup is poised to be a pitchers' duel. According to DraftKings, the Dodgers are favored at -150, while the Phillies sit as +123 underdogs, with 55% of the money currently backing the Dodgers.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Blake Snell

Jesús Luzardo (PHI):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 96.5 mph), Sweeper (31% usage, 86.1 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 87.9 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 95.8 mph), Slider (8% usage, 86.5 mph)
Interpretation: Luzardo is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse pitch mix, relying heavily on his fastball and sweeper to keep hitters off balance.
Matchup Insight: The Dodgers lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .241 vs Luzardo's arsenal.

Blake Snell (LAD):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.1 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 85.5 mph), Curveball (22% usage, 80.4 mph), Slider (10% usage, 88.1 mph)
Interpretation: Snell is a fastball-heavy pitcher with a strong secondary pitch repertoire, making him effective at generating swings and misses.
Matchup Insight: The Phillies lineup averages .267 this season but projects to a lower .243 xBA against Snell's arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Phillies vs Blake Snell:

The Phillies lineup averages .267 this season but projects to .243 vs Snell's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: No significant increases.
Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .176 (-108 points), Season K% 27.2% → Arsenal K% 34.4% (+7.2%)

For Dodgers vs Jesús Luzardo:

The Dodgers lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .241 vs Luzardo's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Tommy Edman: Season BA .231 → xBA vs arsenal .263 (+32 points), Season K% 16.6% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+1.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (-21 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 15.4% (-5.2%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Phillies' projected K-rate is 27.4% vs Snell — up 5.5% from their 21.9% season average.
Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.0% vs Luzardo — up 2.6% from their 18.4% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Edman (.231 → .263, +32 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Blake Snell strikeout OVER - Phillies' K-rate jumps to 27.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Tommy Edman shows a notable increase in expected batting average against Luzardo, making him a viable prop target.
Blake Snell's strikeout potential is heightened against a Phillies lineup projected for a 27.4% K-rate.
With the umpire assignment still TBA, approach other props with caution due to potential volatility.
Overall, Snell's strikeout over and Edman's batting are the key prop opportunities in this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the PHI vs LAD game? A: Tommy Edman meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA increase against Luzardo.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to classify tendencies.

Q: What time is the PHI vs LAD game? A: The game is scheduled for September 17th at 10:10PM.

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