Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Phillies vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 16)
Last updated: September 16, 2025
Game Time: 9/16, 10:10PM
Brief Intro
Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are favored at -123 with 89% of the betting money backing them, while the Phillies are slight underdogs at +101 according to DraftKings. This matchup promises intrigue with powerhouse Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers and the crafty Cristopher Sánchez pitching for the Phillies.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):
- Pitch Arsenal: Sinker (45% usage, 95.3 mph); Changeup (38% usage, 86.2 mph); Slider (17% usage, 85.6 mph)
Cristopher Sánchez is a sinkerballer who relies heavily on his sinker and changeup to keep hitters off balance. The Dodgers lineup, which averages .270 this season, projects to a slightly lower xBA of .262 against Sánchez's pitch mix.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam (36% usage, 98.3 mph); Sweeper (25% usage, 84.9 mph); Slider (11% usage, 87.9 mph); Curveball (8% usage, 78.9 mph); Sinker (8% usage, 96.2 mph); Cutter (7% usage, 93.9 mph); Splitter (5% usage, 90.4 mph)
Shohei Ohtani is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse arsenal, featuring a blazing fastball and a devastating splitter. The Phillies lineup, averaging .260 on the season, is projected to hit .256 against Ohtani's varied offerings.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Phillies vs Shohei Ohtani:
- The Phillies lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .256 vs Ohtani's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Bryce Harper: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (+29 points), Season K% 21.0% → Arsenal K% 22.2% (+1.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-53 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 31.3% (+4.4%)
For Dodgers vs Cristopher Sánchez:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .262 vs Sánchez's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: No significant increases.
- Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .296 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (-20 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 12.7% (-7.9%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Phillies: Projected K-rate is 25.4% vs Ohtani — up 2.1% from their 23.3% season average.
- Dodgers: Projected K-rate is 18.0% vs Sánchez — down 0.3% from their 18.3% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Bryce Harper (.264 → .293, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Cristopher Sánchez strikeout OVER - Phillies' K-rate jumps to 25.4% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Bryce Harper shows a significant batting advantage against Shohei Ohtani's arsenal.
- Cristopher Sánchez has potential strikeout value with the Phillies' elevated K-rate against him.
- Umpire assignment is pending, introducing some uncertainty in prop bets.
- The Dodgers are favored, but Harper's prop and Sánchez's K potential offer intriguing betting angles.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Phillies vs Dodgers game? A: Bryce Harper meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .293 against Shohei Ohtani.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess any umpire tendencies at this time.
Q: What time is the Phillies vs Dodgers game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/16, 10:10PM.
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