October 9, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Phillies vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 09)

Last updated: October 09, 2025

Game Time: 10/9, 06:08PM

Matchup Setup

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an engaging matchup. The betting lines from DraftKings list the Dodgers as slight favorites at -132, while the Phillies are underdogs at +108, despite 67% of the betting public siding with Philadelphia. This game could hinge on the effectiveness of the starting pitchers and the performance of key batters under their arsenals.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Tyler Glasnow

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):

Cristopher Sánchez brings a three-pitch mix to the mound with a Sinker (46% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (37% usage, 86.3 mph), and Slider (17% usage, 85.7 mph). He is a velocity-heavy pitcher, focusing on groundball-inducing sinkers and deceptive changeups. The Dodgers lineup, however, averages a .270 BA this season and has a slightly lower projected xBA of .265 against Sánchez's offerings.

Tyler Glasnow (LAD):

Tyler Glasnow counters with a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage, 95.7 mph), Slider (22% usage, 89.3 mph), Curveball (22% usage, 82.0 mph), and Sinker (21% usage, 95.9 mph). Known for his ability to mix speeds and locations, Glasnow's arsenal faces a Phillies lineup that hits .261 on the season but projects to a similar .261 xBA against him.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Phillies vs Tyler Glasnow:

The Phillies lineup averages .261 this season, projecting to .261 vs Glasnow's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Max Kepler shows promise with a season BA of .215 → xBA .241 (+25 points), K% 19.6% → 20.6% (+1.0%).
Biggest Decrease: Trea Turner struggles against Glasnow with a season BA of .304 → xBA .264 (-40 points), K% 16.7% → 18.1% (+1.4%).

For Dodgers vs Cristopher Sánchez:

The Dodgers lineup averages .271 this season but sees a slight dip to a projected .265 vs Sánchez's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Tommy Edman shines with a season BA of .225 → xBA .287 (+62 points), K% 16.2% → 11.8% (-4.4%).
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman faces challenges with a season BA of .295 → xBA .261 (-34 points), K% 20.4% → 13.0% (-7.4%).

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Phillies' projected K-rate is 22.6% vs Glasnow — up 1.6% from their 21.0% season average, suggesting potential for K prop value.
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 18.1% vs Sánchez — down 0.7% from their 18.8% season average, indicating a potential for contact play.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

No individual batters meet our strict batting lean criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a boost of > +20 points.

No significant increases in strikeout rates meet the threshold of K% > 25% and a jump of over 4%.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Max Kepler and Tommy Edman are key players to watch, with notable boosts in projected performance against their respective opposing pitchers.
Cristopher Sánchez may struggle to induce strikeouts against a Dodgers lineup with a lower-than-average projected K-rate.
The absence of umpire data adds an element of unpredictability to prop bets in this matchup.
Overall, no significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold, suggesting a cautious approach.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the PHI vs LAD game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the PHI vs LAD game? A: 10/9, 06:08PM

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