October 9, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 09)

Last updated: October 09, 2025

Game Time: 10/9, 09:08PM

Game Overview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs in a high-stakes matchup. With DraftKings listing the Brewers as a -127 favorite over the Cubs, who are +104 underdogs, the betting market shows 54% of the money backing the Brewers. This game promises a fascinating duel, particularly with the pitching dynamics at play.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd

Robert Gasser (MIL):

Robert Gasser is a diversified pitcher, wielding a unique mix of pitches: Four-Seam (34% usage, 92.9 mph), Sweeper (33% usage, 82.0 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 93.2 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 88.9 mph), and Cutter (3% usage, 89.4 mph). His approach, combining speed and movement, categorizes him as a pitch-mix artist. The Cubs lineup, however, averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Gasser's arsenal.

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Matthew Boyd brings a more velocity-heavy arsenal to the mound with a Four-Seam (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph). The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to a slightly higher .265 against Boyd's mix of pitches.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Brewers vs Matthew Boyd: The Brewers lineup, averaging .259 this season, projects to .265 against Boyd’s arsenal. Key performers include:

Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%)
Brice Turang: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-33 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.0%)

For Cubs vs Robert Gasser: The Cubs lineup averages .253 seasonally but projects to .258 against Gasser. Key performers include:

Ian Happ: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .297 (+54 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (-1.9%)
Matt Shaw: Season BA .226 → xBA vs arsenal .174 (-52 points), Season K% 21.5% → Arsenal K% 34.3% (+12.8%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Gasser — up 2.0% from their 20.5% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold for this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant xBA increase.
Both pitching matchups present moderate strikeout risk increases but lack overwhelming indicators for K props.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to prop betting.
Overall, the Brewers hold a slight edge in pitching and batting, aligning with their favorite status.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Andrew Vaughn stands out with a notable increase in xBA against Matthew Boyd's pitching style.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled to start at 09:08PM on October 9th.

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