Game Time: 7/27, 01:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Philadelphia Phillies head to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees in what promises to be a thrilling matchup. With Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies and Carlos Rodón for the Yankees, this game offers intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. DraftKings lists the Phillies as a -131 favorite, while the Yankees are +108 underdogs, with 76% of the money backing Philadelphia.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Carlos Rodón
Zack Wheeler (PHI):
Wheeler brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 96.2 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 95.6 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 84.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 81.3 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 92.0 mph), and Splitter (8% usage, 87.3 mph). His style leans heavily on velocity with a mix of movement pitches. The Yankees lineup averages .250 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Wheeler's arsenal.
Carlos Rodón (NYY):
Rodón relies on a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 94.4 mph), Slider (30% usage, 85.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.1 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 92.2 mph), and Curveball (5% usage, 80.0 mph). His approach is characterized by a mix of fastball and breaking pitches. The Phillies lineup, which hits .270 on the season, projects to a .263 xBA against Rodón's mix.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Phillies lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .263 against Rodón's arsenal. Otto Kemp stands out with a significant increase in projected performance, moving from a season BA of .241 to an xBA of .298 (+57 points), and a K% decrease from 27.5% to 26.5% (-1.0%). Conversely, Weston Wilson's performance is expected to drop significantly, from a season BA of .312 to an xBA of .230 (-82 points), with a K% increase from 7.8% to 27.8% (+20.0%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
Facing Wheeler, the Yankees lineup's season average of .250 projects slightly lower to .248. Trent Grisham is expected to see a boost, with a season BA of .252 increasing to an xBA of .278 (+26 points), while his K% drops from 21.4% to 17.7% (-3.7%). Giancarlo Stanton, however, is projected to struggle, seeing his season BA of .277 drop to an xBA of .231 (-46 points), with a minor K% decrease from 30.2% to 29.9% (-0.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Phillies' projected K-rate is 23.9% against Rodón, up 4.3% from their 19.6% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props. Conversely, the Yankees' projected K-rate is 22.8% against Wheeler, down 0.8% from their 23.6% season average, indicating a potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Otto Kemp (.241 → .298, +57 points) is the only batter showing a potential lean with an xBA above .300, boosted by 57 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Phillies' projected K-rate of 23.9% is notable but does not exceed the 25% threshold for a strikeout over lean. No strong lean for pitcher props based on strikeout criteria.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Otto Kemp - his .298 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +57 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in the strikeout category.
