Game Time: 7/25, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are the favorites with DraftKings listing them at -165, while the Phillies come in as +135 underdogs. Interestingly, 50% of the betting money is backing the Phillies, highlighting a potentially intriguing matchup for bettors.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker vs. Will Warren
Taijuan Walker (PHI):
Walker utilizes a varied arsenal, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 94.1 mph), Cutter (19% usage, 90.6 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 93.9 mph), Slider (15% usage, 87.7 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 77.8 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 80.8 mph), and Changeup (7% usage, 90.0 mph). This mix makes him a pitch-mix artist, though not reliant on overpowering velocity. The Yankees lineup, known for their adaptability, averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against Walker's diverse pitch repertoire.
Will Warren (NYY):
Warren's arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 93.2 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 82.6 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 93.0 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 86.9 mph), and Curveball (7% usage, 79.8 mph). His reliance on his Four-Seam Fastball and Sweeper highlights a preference for movement over speed. The Phillies lineup averages .253 this season but projects a .269 xBA against Warren's offerings, suggesting a potentially favorable matchup for Philadelphia's hitters.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Phillies lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .269 versus Warren's arsenal. Otter Kemp shows the most promise with a significant boost: Season BA .252 → xBA vs. arsenal .301 (+49 points), Season K% 26.09% → Arsenal K% 28.8% (+2.71%). Conversely, Trea Turner is expected to struggle: Season BA .290 → xBA vs. arsenal .262 (-28 points), Season K% 16.48% → Arsenal K% 16.6% (+0.12%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .251 this season and projects a .264 xBA against Walker. Anthony Volpe shows a noticeable increase: Season BA .214 → xBA vs. arsenal .251 (+37 points), Season K% 23.40% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (-0.30%). Giancarlo Stanton, however, might falter: Season BA .271 → xBA vs. arsenal .243 (-28 points), Season K% 28.87% → Arsenal K% 26.8% (-2.07%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Phillies' projected K-rate is 21.29% versus Warren, a slight decrease from their 21.76% season average, indicating potentially less strikeout risk. On the other hand, the Yankees' projected K-rate is 23.84% against Walker, slightly higher than their 23.78% season average, suggesting a minor uptick in strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Otto Kemp stands out with a strong statistical edge: his projected xBA of .301 against Warren's arsenal surpasses the .300 threshold and comes with a significant +49 point boost, making him a potential lean for prop betting.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team's strikeout rate meets the criteria for a lean, as both teams' projected K-rates are below 25% and do not increase by more than 4% compared to their season averages.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Otto Kemp - his .301 xBA against Warren's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +49 point boost, making him a strong candidate for betting consideration. No significant strikeout prop edges were identified for the pitchers in this matchup.
