Game Time: 7/11, 09:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Diego to take on the Padres in what promises to be an intriguing matchup, featuring growing momentum for the Phillies as -167 favorites. With the Padres listed as +137 underdogs, it’s worth noting that 75% of the betting money is backing the Phillies. This sets the stage for an intense battle at the mound and at the plate.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suárez vs. Ryan Bergert
Ranger Suárez (PHI):
Ranger Suárez brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound: Sinker (27% usage, 90.5 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 79.9 mph), Cutter (18% usage, 86.8 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 74.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage, 91.9 mph), and Slider (4% usage, 82.4 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Suárez challenges batters with a combination of velocity and movement. The Padres lineup averages .251 this season, with a projected xBA of .264 against Suárez’s diverse offerings.
Ryan Bergert (SD):
Ryan Bergert counters with a different approach, relying heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 93.7 mph), along with a Slider (23% usage, 87.5 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 83.9 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 92.7 mph), and Changeup (6% usage, 87.8 mph). The Phillies lineup averages .260 this season but is projected to hit .263 against Bergert’s arsenal, indicating a potential for success against his fastball-heavy approach.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Phillies lineup averages .260 this season with a projection to .263 against Bergert's arsenal. Notably, Brandon Marsh shows a significant improvement: Season BA .265 → xBA .291 (+26 points), Season K% 24.9% → Arsenal K% 23.4% (-1.5%). Conversely, Trea Turner sees a drop: Season BA .294 → xBA .251 (-43 points), Season K% 16.1% → Arsenal K% 18.5% (+2.4%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Padres lineup averages .251 but projects to .264 against Suárez's arsenal. Manny Machado benefits notably: Season BA .287 → xBA .322 (+35 points), Season K% 17.1% → Arsenal K% 16.0% (-1.1%). In contrast, Jake Cronenworth faces challenges: Season BA .239 → xBA .221 (-18 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 24.5% (+5.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Phillies’ projected K-rate is 21.6% against Bergert — up 0.9% from their 20.6% season average, indicating a slight increase in strikeout risk. Meanwhile, the Padres’ projected K-rate is 18.6% against Suárez, down 0.2% from their 18.8% season average, suggesting a decrease in strikeouts and potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No Phillies batter exceeds the .300 threshold with a +20 point boost against Bergert. On the Padres side, Manny Machado (.287 → .322, +35) meets both criteria, indicating a potential lean for Machado to perform well against Suárez.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant team strikeout rate changes meet the betting criteria for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Manny Machado - his .322 xBA against Suárez’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +35 point boost. No other significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
