Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Padres vs Sox: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 20)
Last updated: September 20, 2025
Game Time: 9/20, 07:10PM
Matchup Setup
The San Diego Padres travel to face the Chicago White Sox in a matchup that sees the Padres favored heavily, with DraftKings listing them as a −172 favorite. The White Sox come in as +140 underdogs, with 83% of the betting money backing the Padres. This game sets up an intriguing battle, especially with Yu Darvish on the mound for San Diego and Yoendrys Gómez pitching for Chicago.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs Yoendrys Gómez
Yu Darvish (SD):
Yu Darvish brings a diverse mix of pitches to the mound: Sinker (21% usage, 93.5 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 72.0 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage, 93.9 mph), Slider (14% usage, 86.0 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 90.8 mph), Splitter (11% usage, 86.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.6 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 88.1 mph). Darvish is a pitch-mix artist with the ability to keep hitters off-balance through varied speeds and movements. The White Sox lineup has averaged .251 this season, but their projected xBA against Darvish's arsenal is .246, indicating potential struggles against his diverse mix.
Yoendrys Gómez (CWS):
Yoendrys Gómez counters with a solid pitch arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 93.8 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.2 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 93.4 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 80.6 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.3 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 90.3 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 86.8 mph). Gómez is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a focus on power pitches. The Padres lineup, averaging .269 this season, projects to improve slightly with a .275 xBA against Gómez, suggesting they might handle his heat effectively.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For SD vs Yoendrys Gómez: The Padres lineup averages .269 this season and projects to .275 against Gómez's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jackson Merrill: Season BA .260 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (+24 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 21.5% (-0.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: None of the key performers had significant decreases.
For CWS vs Yu Darvish: The White Sox lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .246 vs Darvish's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Colson Montgomery: Season BA .219 → xBA vs arsenal .253 (+34 points), Season K% 30.1% → Arsenal K% 27.4% (-2.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Chase Meidroth: Season BA .267 → xBA vs arsenal .245 (-22 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 16.0% (+1.9%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.4% vs Gómez — up 0.1% from their 18.3% season average.
- The White Sox's projected K-rate is 21.5% vs Darvish — down 0.0% from their 21.6% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jackson Merrill (.260 → .284, +24 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet the betting criteria in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jackson Merrill is a standout performer against Gómez, showing significant potential for hitting props.
- Colson Montgomery shows promise against Darvish with a notable increase in xBA.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities due to stable K-rates against both pitchers' arsenals.
- Umpire uncertainty adds volatility to potential prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SD vs CWS game? A: Jackson Merrill meets our strict betting criteria with a notable xBA increase.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to the game.
Q: What time is the SD vs CWS game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/20, 07:10PM.
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