Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Padres vs Rockies: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)
Last updated: September 05, 2025
Game Time: 9/5, 08:40PM
Game Preview
The San Diego Padres are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. The betting lines favor the Padres heavily, with DraftKings listing them as a -233 favorite against the Rockies, who stand as +188 underdogs. Notably, 71% of the betting public is backing the Padres in this matchup.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta vs Kyle Freeland
Nick Pivetta (SD):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.8 mph), Curveball (22% usage, 79.0 mph), Sweeper (17% usage, 81.7 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 89.9 mph), Sinker (4% usage, 93.8 mph), Slider (2% usage, 83.3 mph), Splitter (0% usage, 87.3 mph)
Nick Pivetta is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a reliance on his four-seam fastball and curveball. The Rockies lineup has struggled against similar pitch types, averaging a .246 BA with a projected xBA of .247 against Pivetta's arsenal.
Kyle Freeland (COL):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage, 91.6 mph), Curveball (25% usage, 82.7 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.4 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 83.7 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 91.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.4 mph)
Freeland utilizes a balanced pitch mix, with a slight emphasis on breaking pitches. The Padres lineup, known for its contact ability, averages a .269 BA with a projected xBA of .270 against Freeland's offerings.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Padres vs Freeland:
- The Padres lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .270 against Freeland's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jackson Merrill: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (+37 points), Season K% 21.3% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (-0.4%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jake Cronenworth: Season BA .247 → xBA vs arsenal .219 (-28 points), Season K% 20.7% → Arsenal K% 21.2% (+0.5%)
For the Rockies vs Pivetta:
- The Rockies lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .247 against Pivetta's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Mickey Moniak: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .300 (+38 points), Season K% 23.8% → Arsenal K% 23.6% (-0.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Kyle Karros: Season BA .247 → xBA vs arsenal .167 (-80 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 39.4% (+16.3%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.4% vs Freeland — up 0.9% from their 17.6% season average.
- The Rockies' projected K-rate is 26.7% vs Pivetta — up 3.2% from their 23.5% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Mickey Moniak (.262 → .300, +38 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jackson Merrill and Mickey Moniak show strong batting advantages against their respective pitchers.
- Kyle Karros faces a significant disadvantage against Pivetta’s arsenal.
- The unannounced umpire adds uncertainty to prop bets, especially regarding strikeout and walk outcomes.
- While Pivetta’s strikeout advantage against the Rockies is notable, it doesn't meet our strict criteria for a K prop alert.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Rockies game? A: Mickey Moniak meets our strict betting criteria with a notable boost in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing volatility in prop outcomes.
Q: What time is the Padres vs Rockies game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/5 at 08:40PM.
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