Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Padres vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 18)
Last updated: September 18, 2025Game Time: 9/18, 01:10PM
Matchup Setup
The San Diego Padres head to Citi Field to battle the New York Mets today. DraftKings lists the Mets as a -137 favorite, with the Padres as a +113 underdog. Interestingly, 70% of the betting money is backing the Padres, signaling a potential upset in the making.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Randy Vásquez vs Jonah Tong
Randy Vásquez (SD):
Randy Vásquez brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Cutter (25% usage, 90.3 mph), Four-Seam (20% usage, 93.1 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 93.0 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 82.1 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 81.2 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.8 mph), Slider (2% usage, 86.1 mph). With a mix of velocity and movement, Vásquez is a pitch-mix artist. However, the Mets lineup is batting .253 on the season and projects a higher xBA of .268 against his arsenal, indicating a challenging outing for Vásquez.Jonah Tong (NYM):
Jonah Tong relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage, 95.7 mph), complemented by a Changeup (29% usage, 86.2 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.1 mph), and Slider (3% usage, 87.6 mph). His power pitching approach could prove effective against the Padres, who have a season average of .269 but project a slightly lower xBA of .262 against Tong's pitches.Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Padres vs Jonah Tong:
- The Padres lineup, with a season average of .269, projects to .262 against Tong's arsenal.
- Jake Cronenworth experiences the biggest decline with a season BA of .251 dropping to a projected xBA of .220 (-31 points), while his K% remains stable.
For Mets vs Randy Vásquez:
- The Mets lineup, averaging .253 on the season, projects to improve to .269 against Vásquez's arsenal.
- Juan Soto shows the biggest increase, with his season BA of .261 rising to an xBA of .314 (+53 points), while his K% decreases slightly.
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Padres' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Jonah Tong — up 1.8% from their season average of 18.2%, suggesting potential value in Tong's strikeout props.
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 19.8% vs Randy Vásquez — down 1.7% from their season average of 21.5%, indicating less strikeout potential against Vásquez.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.261 → .314, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Jonah Tong strikeout OVER - Padres' K-rate jumps to 20.0% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Juan Soto is a prime candidate for betting props, with significant increases in projected BA.
- Jonah Tong shows potential for strikeout props as the Padres' K-rate increases against him.
- Umpire assignment is unknown, adding a layer of uncertainty to betting props.
- Overall, consider player and strikeout props with highlighted opportunities.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SD vs NYM game? A: Juan Soto is the standout player, with a significant boost in projected batting average against Randy Vásquez.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to determine any tendency.
Q: What time is the SD vs NYM game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/18 at 01:10PM.
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