Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Padres vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)
Last updated: September 17, 2025
Game Time: 9/17, 07:10PM
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres travel to New York to face the Mets in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Citi Field. The betting odds for this game are currently unavailable, but the focus will be on the clash between the pitching styles of Nick Pivetta and David Peterson. Both teams are looking to gain an edge as they continue their pursuits of playoff aspirations.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta vs David Peterson
Nick Pivetta (SD):
Nick Pivetta is a pitcher who relies on a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance. His pitch mix includes:
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.8 mph)
- Curveball (22% usage, 79.0 mph)
- Sweeper (17% usage, 81.7 mph)
- Cutter (9% usage, 90.0 mph)
- Sinker (4% usage, 93.8 mph)
- Slider (2% usage, 83.3 mph)
- Splitter (0% usage, 87.3 mph)
Pivetta's style leans toward being a pitch-mix artist with multiple off-speed options. The Mets lineup has averaged .244 this season but projects to a .256 xBA against Pivetta's varied arsenal.
David Peterson (NYM):
David Peterson utilizes a balanced mix of pitches:
- Sinker (29% usage, 91.2 mph)
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.3 mph)
- Slider (19% usage, 84.6 mph)
- Changeup (15% usage, 84.5 mph)
- Curveball (14% usage, 78.6 mph)
Peterson is a ground-ball pitcher with a focus on inducing weak contact. The Padres lineup averages .264 this season, with a projected xBA of .271 versus Peterson's offerings.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Padres vs David Peterson:
- The Padres lineup season average is .264, projecting to .271 against Peterson.
- Biggest Increase: Manny Machado: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .303 (+27 points), Season K% 18.6% → Arsenal K% 19.5% (+0.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jake Cronenworth: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .223 (-27 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 22.9% (+2.8%)
For the Mets vs Nick Pivetta:
- The Mets lineup season average is .245, projecting to .256 against Pivetta.
- Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .312 (+50 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 18.9% (-0.5%)
- Biggest Decrease: Pete Alonso shows a modest increase, but the matchup isn't significantly disadvantageous.
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.0% vs Peterson — up 0.2% from their 17.9% season average.
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Pivetta — up 1.9% from their 21.6% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Manny Machado (.276 → .303, +27 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Manny Machado stands out as a strong batting prop candidate against Peterson with a projected significant boost in xBA.
- Both teams show slight increases in strikeout rates, but no pitcher meets our criteria for a strikeout prop.
- Umpire assignment is not announced, adding uncertainty to betting props.
- Betting recommendations favor individual player props over strikeout totals due to matchup dynamics.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Mets game? A: Manny Machado is the standout prop candidate with a significant boost in projected xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, so tendencies are unknown.
Q: What time is the Padres vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/17, 07:10PM.
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