Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Padres vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 17)
Last updated: August 17, 2025
Game Time: 8/17, 04:10PM
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres visit the Los Angeles Dodgers in what promises to be a thrilling matchup. With the Dodgers pegged as -157 favorites on DraftKings and 58% of the money backing them, the Padres are positioned as +129 underdogs. Bettors are keenly watching this NL West showdown, expecting the Dodgers' home advantage to play a crucial role.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish (SD) vs Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
Yu Darvish (SD):
Yu Darvish brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Sinker (23% usage, 93.3 mph), Slider (18% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 73.0 mph), Four-Seam (13% usage, 93.7 mph), Splitter (13% usage, 86.4 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 82.6 mph), Cutter (4% usage, 91.1 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 88.1 mph). Darvish's mix makes him a pitch-mix artist, adept at keeping batters guessing. The Dodgers lineup, however, averages .237 against his arsenal, slightly lower than their season average of .248.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD):
Tyler Glasnow counters with a power-heavy style, throwing a Four-Seam (41% usage, 95.9 mph), Slider (21% usage, 89.8 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 82.4 mph), and Sinker (18% usage, 96.3 mph). The Padres lineup, which averages .274 on the season, projects to a stronger .287 against Glasnow's offerings, indicating a potential edge for San Diego hitters.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For San Diego vs Tyler Glasnow:
- The Padres lineup averages .274 this season but projects to .287 against Glasnow's pitches.
- Biggest Increase: Xander Bogaerts: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .302 (+37 points), Season K% 15.65% → Arsenal K% 14.0% (-1.65%)
- Biggest Decrease: N/A (All key performers project an increase)
For Los Angeles vs Yu Darvish:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .248 this season but projects to .238 against Darvish's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Michael Conforto: Season BA .189 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (+42 points), Season K% 23.67% → Arsenal K% 27.9% (+4.23%)
- Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-50 points), Season K% 22.68% → Arsenal K% 23.4% (+0.72%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Padres' projected K-rate is 17.56% vs Glasnow — up 0.64% from their 16.92% season average. This slight increase suggests mild K prop value.
- The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 26.27% vs Darvish — up 3.66% from their 22.61% season average, indicating significant strikeout risk.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
- 📢 Prop Alert: Xander Bogaerts (.265 → .302, +37 points) meets betting lean criteria!
- ⚡ K Prop Alert: Yu Darvish strikeout OVER - Dodgers' K-rate jumps to 26.27% vs this arsenal!
No other significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Xander Bogaerts presents a prime batting prop opportunity with significant projected BA improvement.
- Yu Darvish offers promising strikeout potential against a Dodgers lineup with elevated K-rates.
- Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop bets.
- Overall, focus on Bogaerts' batting edge and Darvish's strikeout potential for betting value.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Dodgers game? A: Xander Bogaerts presents the best prop opportunity with a projected BA improvement over 20 points.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to classify tendencies.
Q: What time is the Padres vs Dodgers game? A: 8/17, 04:10PM
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