Game Time: 7/27, 02:15 PM
1. Brief Intro
In this intriguing matchup, the San Diego Padres take on the St. Louis Cardinals. The betting lines, according to DraftKings, have the Cardinals as a -132 favorite and the Padres as a +108 underdog, with a notable 73% of the money backing the Padres. The game will see a duel between Stephen Kolek of the Padres and Michael McGreevy of the Cardinals, each bringing unique pitching arsenals to the mound.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Stephen Kolek vs Michael McGreevy
Stephen Kolek (SD):
Stephen Kolek's pitching arsenal features a varied mix: Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 94.0 mph), Sinker (24% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (17% usage, 85.2 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 90.6 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.3 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 82.9 mph), and a rarely used Curveball (0% usage, 78.6 mph). Kolek is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing an array of speeds and movements. Against these pitches, the Cardinals lineup has averaged .254 this season, with a projected xBA of .254 against Kolek's arsenal.
Michael McGreevy (STL):
Michael McGreevy relies on his Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (24% usage, 91.6 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 83.6 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 88.5 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 79.8 mph), Slider (6% usage, 83.6 mph), and Changeup (6% usage, 88.2 mph). The Padres lineup, averaging .265 this season, projects a slight increase with an xBA of .273 against McGreevy's diverse arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Padres lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .273 against McGreevy's arsenal. Notable performers include Gavin Sheets, who shows the biggest increase in xBA: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (+43 points), with a Season K% 19.6% → Arsenal K% 17.1% (-2.5%). Meanwhile, Jr. Tatis sees a significant improvement in strikeouts: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .297 (+31 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.7% (-1.2%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Cardinals lineup, with a season average of .265, is projected to drop slightly to .254 against Kolek's arsenal. Iván Herrera experiences the largest decrease: Season BA .312 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (-80 points), along with a Season K% 19.1% → Arsenal K% 20.7% (+1.6%). In contrast, Nolan Arenado shows a modest increase: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .263 (+26 points), with Season K% 9.4% → Arsenal K% 8.0% (-1.4%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Padres' projected K-rate is 16.7% vs McGreevy — up 0.2% from their 16.6% season average, indicating minimal strikeout risk change. Conversely, the Cardinals' projected K-rate is 18.1% vs Kolek — down 0.6% from their 18.7% season average, suggesting a slightly lower strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
The analysis of individual batters shows no clear betting leans as no player meets both criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a significant boost > +20 points. Jr. Tatis approaches the criteria with an xBA of .297 but does not exceed the .300 threshold.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team presents a substantial enough difference in their projected K-rates to suggest a lean on strikeout props. Both teams' projected K-rates remain close to their season averages, lacking the necessary increase or decrease.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. While there are individual player improvements and declines, none meet the strict criteria for a betting lean in this game.
