September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Orioles vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: 9/28, 03:05PM

Today's Setup

The Baltimore Orioles head to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees in a highly anticipated matchup. The Yankees are currently favored by DraftKings at −200, while the Orioles are sitting at +162 underdogs, with 79% of the betting money backing New York. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and diverse lineup dynamics that could influence the betting landscape.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Luis Gil (NYY)

Kyle Bradish (BAL):

Arsenal: Sinker (33% usage, 94.7 mph); Slider (30% usage, 86.9 mph); Four-Seam (24% usage, 94.3 mph); Curveball (14% usage, 83.9 mph)
Interpretation: Bradish is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a mix that can keep hitters guessing, relying on his sinker and slider significantly.
Matchup Insight: The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .252 against Bradish's arsenal.

Luis Gil (NYY):

Arsenal: Four-Seam (36% usage, 95.4 mph); Slider (35% usage, 87.5 mph); Splitter (20% usage, 81.7 mph); Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph); Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph)
Interpretation: Gil uses a balanced mix of power and off-speed pitches, featuring a dominant four-seam fastball.
Matchup Insight: The Orioles lineup averages .241 this season but projects to .238 against Gil's arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Orioles vs Luis Gil:

The Orioles lineup averages .241 this season but projects to .238 vs Gil's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Gunnar Henderson: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .296 (+23 points), Season K% 21.2% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+1.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Dylan Beavers: Season BA .231 → xBA vs arsenal .164 (-67 points), Season K% 25.6% → Arsenal K% 36.6% (+11.0%)

For Yankees vs Kyle Bradish:

The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .252 vs Bradish's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Anthony Volpe: Season BA .211 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (+47 points), Season K% 25.1% → Arsenal K% 24.2% (-0.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Ben Rice: Season BA .287 → xBA vs arsenal .214 (-73 points), Season K% 22.6% → Arsenal K% 30.8% (+8.2%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Orioles' K-rate: Projected at 27.6% vs Luis Gil — up 3.3% from their 24.3% season average.
Yankees' K-rate: Projected at 26.3% vs Kyle Bradish — up 1.1% from their 25.2% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Gunnar Henderson (.273 → .296, +23 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Luis Gil strikeout OVER - Orioles' K-rate jumps to 27.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Gunnar Henderson shows significant batting advantage against Luis Gil, making for a strong batting prop consideration.
Luis Gil's strikeout potential is elevated due to the Orioles' increased K-rate against his mix.
Without umpire data, betting volatility on strikeout or walk props remains high.
Overall, consider focusing on Gunnar Henderson's batting props and Luis Gil's strikeout potential for betting edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Orioles vs Yankees game? A: Gunnar Henderson meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .296 against Luis Gil.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making this assessment unavailable.

Q: What time is the Orioles vs Yankees game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/28 at 03:05PM.

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