September 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Orioles vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)

Last updated: September 26, 2025

Game Time: 9/26, 07:05PM

Today's Setup

The Baltimore Orioles are set to face off against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, with the Yankees positioned as a −150 favorite on DraftKings. The Orioles, meanwhile, are +123 underdogs. Notably, 70% of the betting public is backing the Yankees in this matchup.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Will Warren

Trevor Rogers (BAL):

Trevor Rogers brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound, featuring:

Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 93.1 mph)
Changeup (25% usage, 86.3 mph)
Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph)
Slider (12% usage, 81.3 mph)
Sweeper (8% usage, 78.2 mph)

Rogers is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a balanced blend of velocity and movement. The Yankees lineup averages .257 this season and projects a slightly improved xBA of .263 against Rogers' arsenal.

Will Warren (NYY):

Will Warren counters with his own set of pitches:

Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 93.3 mph)
Sinker (21% usage, 93.2 mph)
Sweeper (21% usage, 82.7 mph)
Changeup (10% usage, 87.0 mph)
Curveball (7% usage, 80.1 mph)

Warren's style leans towards a mix of power and finesse, with a notable reliance on his four-seam and sinker. The Orioles lineup, which averages .234 this season, has a projected xBA of .235 against Warren's offerings.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Orioles vs Will Warren:

The Orioles lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .235 against Warren's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Gunnar Henderson, Season BA .274 → xBA vs arsenal .294 (+20 points), Season K% 21.2% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+1.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Dylan Beavers, Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (−39 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 30.8% (+7.2%)

For Yankees vs Trevor Rogers:

The Yankees lineup averages .257 this season and projects to .264 against Rogers' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Austin Slater, Season BA .219 → xBA vs arsenal .281 (+62 points), Season K% 31.6% → Arsenal K% 28.4% (−3.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Aaron Judge, Season BA .330 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (−21 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 24.1% (+0.6%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.6% vs Warren — up 1.8% from their 23.8% season average.
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 23.3% vs Rogers — down 0.8% from their 24.1% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Samuel Basallo (.176 → .263, +87 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Trevor Rogers strikeout OVER - Orioles' K-rate jumps to 25.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Samuel Basallo shows a significant batting advantage against Will Warren, making him a solid prop candidate.
Trevor Rogers faces a potential increase in strikeouts against the Orioles, suggesting an OVER on his strikeout prop.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to any additional prop bets.
Betting leans favor a focus on individual player props rather than team outcomes due to tight statistical edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Orioles vs Yankees game? A: Samuel Basallo presents a strong betting opportunity given his significant boost in projected batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the Orioles vs Yankees game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/26 at 07:05PM.

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