August 18, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Orioles vs Sox: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 18)

Last updated: August 18, 2025

Game Time: 8/18, 07:10PM

Game Preview

The Baltimore Orioles take on the Boston Red Sox in a pivotal matchup at Fenway Park. With DraftKings listing the Red Sox as a -126 favorite and the Orioles as a +104 underdog, 53% of the money is backing Boston. Baltimore will look to upset the odds behind their starting pitcher, Trevor Rogers, while Boston counters with Dustin May.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Dustin May

Trevor Rogers (BAL):

Rogers brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound, featuring:

Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 93.3 mph)
Changeup (25% usage, 86.5 mph)
Sinker (15% usage, 93.1 mph)
Slider (12% usage, 81.0 mph)
Sweeper (7% usage, 78.4 mph)

Rogers is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a solid mix of off-speed pitches, making him a tough challenge for hitters. The Red Sox lineup averages .271 this season but projects a slightly lower xBA of .260 against Rogers' arsenal.

Dustin May (BOS):

May complements his power pitching with:

Sweeper (40% usage, 85.3 mph)
Sinker (34% usage, 94.6 mph)
Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage, 95.5 mph)
Cutter (9% usage, 91.7 mph)

May is a power pitcher with a high reliance on his sweeper and sinker. The Orioles lineup, which averages .237 this season, has a projected xBA of .230 against May's mix.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Orioles vs Dustin May: The Orioles lineup averages .237 this season but projects to .230 against Dustin May's arsenal. Key changes include:

Gunnar Henderson: Season BA .279 → xBA vs May .311 (+32 points), Season K% 22.1% → Arsenal K% 23.9% (+1.8%)
Jackson Holliday: Season BA .249 → xBA vs May .225 (-24 points), Season K% 22.9% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+2.4%)

For Red Sox vs Trevor Rogers: The Red Sox lineup averages .271 this season and projects a .260 xBA against Trevor Rogers. Key changes include:

Carlos Narváez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs Rogers .303 (+53 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 12.8% (-9.7%)
Alex Bregman: Season BA .305 → xBA vs Rogers .277 (-28 points), Season K% 15.5% → Arsenal K% 16.1% (+0.6%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Orioles' projected K-rate is 27.2% vs Dustin May — up 4.0% from their 23.2% season average.
The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 21.6% vs Trevor Rogers — down 0.8% from their 22.4% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Gunnar Henderson (.279 → .311, +32 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Dustin May strikeout OVER - Orioles' K-rate jumps to 27.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Gunnar Henderson is a strong batting prop with a projected xBA of .311 against May.
Dustin May's strikeout prop is compelling given the Orioles' increased K-rate.
Umpire details are missing, adding uncertainty to total and prop bets.
Overall, consider focusing on individual player props rather than full-game lines due to uncertainties.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Orioles vs Sox game? A: Gunnar Henderson meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .311 against Dustin May.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire information is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the Orioles vs Red Sox game? A: The game starts at 07:10PM on August 18.

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