September 13, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Orioles vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)

Last updated: September 13, 2025

Game Time: 9/13, 03:07PM

Brief Intro

The Baltimore Orioles are set to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in what promises to be a dynamic matchup. With DraftKings listing the Blue Jays as a -172 favorite and the Orioles as a +140 underdog, a significant 92% of the money is currently backing Toronto. This game presents intriguing angles for bettors, particularly given the pitching duel on display.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano vs Max Scherzer

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL):

Sugano brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Splitter (24% usage, 87.3 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage, 92.7 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 83.6 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.9 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 88.1 mph), and Curveball (10% usage, 78.2 mph). Sugano is a pitch-mix artist whose varied arsenal can be deceptive. However, the Blue Jays lineup averages .280 this season with a projected xBA of .274 against Sugano’s offerings, indicating a slight edge for Toronto.

Max Scherzer (TOR):

Scherzer, a velocity-heavy pitcher, relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 93.6 mph), supplemented by a Slider (23% usage, 86.4 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 84.9 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 76.7 mph), and a rarely used Cutter (2% usage, 87.5 mph). The Orioles lineup, which averages .233 for the season, projects to a slightly improved .241 against Scherzer’s arsenal, suggesting they may find some success despite Scherzer’s intimidating presence.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Orioles vs Scherzer: The Orioles lineup averages .233 this season but projects to .241 against Scherzer's arsenal. Key player changes include:

Tyler O'Neill: Season BA .210 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (+40 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 26.7% (+2.3%)
Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .278 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-43 points), Season K% 19.9% → Arsenal K% 27.3% (+7.4%)

For the Blue Jays vs Sugano: The Blue Jays lineup averages .280 this season but projects to .274 against Sugano's arsenal. Key player changes include:

Andrés Giménez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .297 (+47 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.0% (-6.5%)
Joey Loperfido: Season BA .341 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-91 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 29.9% (+3.0%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Orioles: The Orioles' projected K-rate is 26.2% vs Scherzer — up 1.7% from their 24.5% season average, indicating a potential for higher strikeouts.

For the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs Sugano — up 1.6% from their 18.5% season average, suggesting a moderate increase in strikeouts.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrés Giménez (.250 → .297, +47 points) meets betting lean criteria!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Player Advantage: Andrés Giménez shows a significant increase in projected batting average against Sugano.
Pitcher Prop: Scherzer faces an Orioles lineup that is projected to strike out more frequently than their season average, though not enough to meet our strict betting criteria.
Umpire Impact: Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall Recommendation: Consider player prop opportunities, particularly Andrés Giménez's promising matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Orioles vs Jays game? A: Andrés Giménez presents the best opportunity, exceeding our criteria with a notable increase in projected batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.

Q: What time is the Orioles vs Jays game? A: 9/13, 03:07PM

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