Game Time: 7/19, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Baltimore Orioles take on the Tampa Bay Rays in an intriguing matchup that pits two teams with diverse strengths against each other. With Dean Kremer on the mound for the Orioles and Zack Littell pitching for the Rays, both bullpens will be tested. Unfortunately, betting odds are not available for this game at the moment, which adds a layer of challenge for bettors looking to analyze this game.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer vs. Zack Littell
Dean Kremer (BAL):
Kremer features a diverse pitch mix that includes a Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 93.4 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 87.1 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 82.1 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.9 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 78.6 mph), and Slider (0% usage, 83.9 mph). This makes him a pitch-mix artist who relies on variation rather than velocity. The Rays lineup averages .290 this season but projects to .271 against Kremer's arsenal, indicating a potential challenge for Tampa Bay hitters.
Zack Littell (TB):
Littell brings a Slider (31% usage, 87.3 mph), Splitter (26% usage, 83.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.0 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 91.4 mph), and Sweeper (4% usage, 79.8 mph) to the mound, marking him as a pitcher who mixes speeds and relies on movement. The Orioles lineup averages .235 this season and projects slightly better at .243 against Littell's offerings, suggesting they might find some success.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Orioles lineup averages .235 this season but projects to .243 against Littell's arsenal. Jordan Westburg shows the biggest increase, moving from a season BA of .246 to a projected .317 (+71 points), although his strikeout rate rises significantly from 25.0% to 30.8% (+5.8%). Conversely, Ramón Laureano sees a decrease, with his season BA of .279 dropping to .252 (-27 points), with a slight increase in K% from 25.31% to 27.9%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Rays lineup, averaging .290 this season, projects to a lower .271 against Kremer's mix. Chandler Simpson experiences the biggest decrease, with his BA sliding from .317 to .257 (-60 points) and a K% increase from 8.82% to 14.5% (+5.68%). Ha-Seong Kim also sees a decrease from .342 season BA to .314 projected BA (-28 points), with a K% drop from 24.79% to 19.1% (-5.69%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 26.7% against Littell — up 1.3% from their 25.4% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts. For the Rays, the projected K-rate is 19.9% against Kremer — down 0.6% from their 20.5% season average, indicating less strikeout risk than usual.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jordan Westburg is the only batter meeting our criteria, with a season BA of .246 projected to a .317 xBA vs. Littell (+71 points). Given the .317 xBA exceeds the .300 threshold and the +71 boost is significant, Westburg is a potential lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team meets the criteria for a strikeout prop lean, as neither has an arsenal K% over 25% with an increase over 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jordan Westburg - his .317 xBA against Littell’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +71 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
