September 6, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Nationals vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 06)

Last updated: September 06, 2025

Game Time: 9/6, 02:20PM

Game Overview

The Washington Nationals head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially from a betting perspective. DraftKings lists the Cubs as heavy favorites at -268, with the Nationals as +213 underdogs. With 93% of the money backing the Cubs, bettors are clearly leaning towards a Chicago victory.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Brad Lord vs Matthew Boyd

Brad Lord (WSH):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage, 94.9 mph), Slider (19% usage, 85.5 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 94.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 86.0 mph), Slurve (0% usage, 82.3 mph)

Brad Lord is a velocity-heavy pitcher, primarily using a fastball-slider combination to overpower hitters. The Cubs lineup, which averages .249 this season, projects to a .255 xBA against Lord's offerings, suggesting they may handle his velocity better than average.

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.8 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.6 mph), Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph)

Boyd is a diverse pitch-mix artist, utilizing a balanced selection of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Nationals lineup, with a season average of .234, projects to drop to .218 against Boyd's varied arsenal, indicating potential struggles.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Nationals vs Matthew Boyd:

The Nationals lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .218 against Boyd's arsenal.
Dylan Crews: Season BA .200 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (+28 points), Season K% 26.2% → Arsenal K% 32.2% (+6.0%)
Andrés Chaparro: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .185 (-65 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 35.5% (+13.0%)

For Cubs vs Brad Lord:

The Cubs lineup averages .249 this season and projects to .255 against Lord's arsenal.
Seiya Suzuki: Season BA .244 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+36 points), Season K% 25.6% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (-0.3%)
Carson Kelly: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .222 (-34 points), Season K% 17.0% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (+1.4%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Nationals' projected K-rate is 33.5% vs Boyd — up 6.2% from their 27.3% season average, indicating significant strikeout potential.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.0% vs Lord — up 1.8% from their 21.2% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Seiya Suzuki (.244 → .280, +36 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Matthew Boyd strikeout OVER - Nationals' K-rate jumps to 33.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Seiya Suzuki offers a strong batting prop with a significant xBA increase.
Matthew Boyd presents a solid strikeout prop opportunity due to the Nationals' elevated K-rate.
Umpire assignment is uncertain, adding a layer of volatility to prop bets.
Overall, focus on Boyd's strikeout potential and Suzuki's favorable batting outlook for betting edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Nationals vs Cubs game? A: Seiya Suzuki meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA boost against Brad Lord.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to predict tendencies currently.

Q: What time is the Nationals vs Cubs game? A: 9/6, 02:20PM

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---