September 5, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Nationals vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)

Last updated: September 05, 2025

Game Time: 9/5, 02:20PM

Game Overview

The Washington Nationals head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs in an intriguing matchup with significant betting interest. With DraftKings listing the Cubs as a -233 favorite and a whopping 87% of the money backing them, it’s clear the consensus is leaning heavily towards Chicago. The Nationals come in as +187 underdogs, looking to upset the odds with Jake Irvin taking the mound.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Jake Irvin vs Javier Assad

Jake Irvin (WSH):

Irvin brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with the following pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (30% usage, 77.7 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 91.8 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 85.6 mph), Slider (5% usage, 83.8 mph), and Cutter (4% usage, 87.3 mph). As a pitcher who thrives on mixing his pitches, Irvin's strategy is to disrupt timing rather than overpower hitters. The Cubs lineup, which averages .248 this season, has a projected xBA of .261 against Irvin’s varied offerings.

Javier Assad (CHC):

Assad counters with a sinker-heavy approach: Sinker (42% usage, 92.1 mph), Cutter (22% usage, 89.1 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage, 92.5 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 77.3 mph), Changeup (3% usage, 86.0 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 83.3 mph). His arsenal is designed to induce weak contact and ground balls. The Nationals lineup, boasting a .244 average this season, is projected to hit .272 against Assad’s pitching style.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Nationals vs Javier Assad: The Nationals, averaging .244 this season, project to a .272 batting average against Assad's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Jr. García: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+55 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 12.6% (-9.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Jacob Young: Season BA .235 → xBA vs arsenal .221 (-14 points), Season K% 16.9% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (+7.4%)

For Cubs vs Jake Irvin: The Cubs, with a season average of .248, are projected to hit .261 against Irvin.

Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .238 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+48 points), Season K% 21.9% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (-1.3%)
Biggest Decrease: Matt Shaw: Season BA .231 → xBA vs arsenal .185 (-46 points), Season K% 20.3% → Arsenal K% 36.1% (+15.8%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Nationals' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Assad — down 3.4% from their 23.4% season average, indicating a potential contact advantage.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.1% vs Irvin — up 2.5% from their 20.6% season average, suggesting increased strikeout risks.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. García (.250 → .305, +55 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant pitcher strikeout prop opportunities meet our criteria in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jr. García stands out as a strong batting prop, significantly outperforming his season average against Assad's arsenal.
No strikeout prop opportunities meet our threshold, with the Cubs' strikeout increase not significant enough.
Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to the prop landscape.
Overall, the Nationals' lineup shows potential to exceed expectations against Assad.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Nationals vs Cubs game? A: Jr. García shows a strong betting edge with a projected xBA of .305 against Assad.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess their tendencies.

Q: What time is the Nationals vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/5, 02:20PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---