September 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Nationals vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)

Last updated: September 23, 2025

Game Time: 9/23, 07:15PM

Game Overview

The Washington Nationals face off against the Atlanta Braves in a high-stakes matchup where the Braves are favored with a -194 line and the Nationals as +158 underdogs. With 87% of the money backing the Braves, the Nationals will need to overcome significant betting odds.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Brad Lord vs Hurston Waldrep

Brad Lord (WSH):

Brad Lord brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a focus on velocity. His pitch mix includes a Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 94.8 mph), Slider (19% usage, 85.5 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 94.4 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.9 mph), and an infrequent Slurve (0% usage, 82.3 mph). The Braves lineup, which averages .258 this season, projects a .253 xBA against Lord's offerings.

Hurston Waldrep (ATL):

Hurston Waldrep's arsenal features a Splitter (34% usage, 86.7 mph) as his primary weapon, complemented by a Cutter (23% usage, 93.1 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 95.8 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 82.5 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.2 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage, 95.6 mph). The Nationals lineup, with a season average of .254, projects a .245 xBA against Waldrep's mix.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Nationals vs Waldrep: The Nationals lineup has a season average of .254 but projects to .245 against Waldrep's arsenal. Notably:

Jr. García: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .295 (+45 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (-5.5%)
Jorge Alfaro: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .198 (-52 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 51.3% (+28.8%)

For Braves vs Lord: The Braves lineup averages .259 this season and projects to .253 against Lord's pitches. Key performers:

Marcell Ozuna: Season BA .233 → xBA vs arsenal .264 (+31 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (-3.1%)
Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .227 (-56 points), Season K% 29.8% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (-4.6%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Nationals' projected K-rate is 28.3% vs Waldrep — up 6.1% from their 22.2% season average.
The Braves' projected K-rate is 22.3% vs Lord — up 0.7% from their 21.6% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. García (.250 → .295, +45 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Hurston Waldrep strikeout OVER - Nationals' K-rate jumps to 28.3% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jr. García presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant increase in xBA.
Hurston Waldrep's strikeout potential is elevated against a high K-rate Nationals lineup.
Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, look for Braves' pitching dominance and targeted player props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Nationals vs Braves game? A: Jr. García (.250 → .295, +45 points) meets our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA.

Q: What time is the Nationals vs Braves game? A: 9/23, 07:15PM

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---