Game Time: 7/13, 02:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Washington Nationals take on the Milwaukee Brewers, the Brewers enter the matchup as the heavy favorites. DraftKings lists the Brewers as a -245 favorite, while the Nationals come in as +196 underdogs. With 86% of the betting money backing Milwaukee, the pressure is on Washington to upset the odds. This preview will dissect the pitching matchups, lineup advantages, and other key angles for bettors to consider.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Jake Irvin vs Freddy Peralta
Jake Irvin (WSH):
Irvin's pitching arsenal is a balanced mix: Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 92.1 mph), Curveball (32% usage, 77.7 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 91.6 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 85.4 mph), Slider (3% usage, 84.0 mph), and Cutter (3% usage, 87.7 mph). This variety makes him a pitch-mix artist, capable of keeping hitters off-balance. The Brewers' lineup, however, averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .263 against Irvin's arsenal, suggesting they may handle his offerings well.
Freddy Peralta (MIL):
Peralta relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage, 94.9 mph), complemented by a Changeup (20% usage, 89.2 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 80.1 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 84.1 mph). This makes him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Nationals' lineup averages .252 this season but is projected to hit .256 against Peralta's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for Peralta.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Nationals' lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .256 against Peralta's arsenal. Jr. García shows a notable increase: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .313 (+63 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 12.3% (-10.2%). Meanwhile, Josh Bell has the biggest decrease: Season BA .285 → xBA vs arsenal .253 (-32 points), Season K% 14.5% → Arsenal K% 22.1% (+7.6%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Brewers' lineup averages .252 but is projected at .264 against Irvin's arsenal. Andrew Vaughn stands out with a significant increase: Season BA .206 → xBA vs arsenal .332 (+126 points), Season K% 21.5% → Arsenal K% 13.3% (-8.2%). In contrast, Isaac Collins sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .236 (-26 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 21.9% (-2.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Nationals' projected K-rate is 23.6% against Peralta — up 1.6% from their 22.0% season average, which signals a slight increase in strikeout potential. The Brewers' projected K-rate is 19.7% against Irvin — up 0.8% from their 18.9% season average, indicating minimal change.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without confirmed umpire tendencies, bettors should exercise caution regarding strikeout and walk prop bets.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jr. García (.250 → .313, +63 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Andrew Vaughn (.206 → .332, +126 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No other players met the criteria for a lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant strikeout prop leans as neither team exceeds the 25% threshold or the 4% increase criterion.
STEP 3: Report findings
"Our final lean would be on Jr. García - his .313 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +63 point boost. Additionally, Andrew Vaughn is a strong lean with his .332 xBA and +126 point boost against Irvin's arsenal."
