October 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

MIL vs CHC: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 28)

Last updated: October 28, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Brief Intro

The Milwaukee Brewers square off against the Chicago Cubs in a late-season showdown. With both teams looking to end the year on a high note, this matchup promises intrigue, especially with Freddy Peralta and Matthew Boyd taking the mound. Betting odds for this game are currently unavailable, adding an element of unpredictability to the stakes.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Freddy Peralta brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, including a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). This mix makes Peralta a velocity-heavy pitcher with versatility to keep hitters guessing. The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Peralta's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for Peralta.

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Matthew Boyd's pitching repertoire consists of a Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph). Boyd is a pitch-mix artist, using his varied speeds and movements to disrupt timing. The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season and projects to a slightly improved .265 xBA against Boyd's pitches.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For MIL vs Matthew Boyd:

The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .265 against Boyd's arsenal.
Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%)

For CHC vs Freddy Peralta:

The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Peralta's arsenal.
Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+1.8%)
Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs. Matthew Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs. Freddy Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average, indicating potential K prop value.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn shows a strong batting advantage against Matthew Boyd's arsenal, making him a prime candidate for a prop bet.
Freddy Peralta's matchup with the Cubs suggests potential value in strikeout props with their increased K-rate.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the overall betting environment.
Bettors should consider Vaughn's and Peralta's situations for potential betting opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the MIL vs CHC game? A: Andrew Vaughn stands out with a significant boost in projected batting average against Matthew Boyd, making him a strong candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, so tendencies can't be determined at this time.

Q: What time is the MIL vs CHC game? A: Game time is TBD.

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