Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
MIL vs CHC: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 26)
Last updated: October 26, 2025
Game Time: TBD
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Chicago Cubs in a matchup that promises to be a compelling duel on the mound. With betting odds not yet available, bettors should focus on the intricate pitcher-batter dynamics and statistical edges to uncover potential value.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Freddy Peralta (MIL):
Freddy Peralta brings a formidable arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Peralta relies on his fastball to overpower hitters while mixing in off-speed pitches to disrupt timing. The Cubs lineup, however, averages .247 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Peralta's mix, indicating a potentially challenging matchup.
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
Matthew Boyd counters with a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph). Boyd's strategy hinges on a balanced pitch mix that can exploit the Brewers' lineup, which averages .259 but only projects to .265 against Boyd's arsenal.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Milwaukee vs Matthew Boyd:
- The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .265 against Boyd's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-33 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.0%)
For Chicago vs Freddy Peralta:
- The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 against Peralta's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+1.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Milwaukee's projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
- Chicago's projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Chicago's K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Andrew Vaughn shows a notable batting edge against Matthew Boyd's arsenal.
- Freddy Peralta benefits from a significant strikeout increase against the Cubs lineup.
- Umpire assignment is pending, impacting betting confidence on props.
- Overall Recommendation: Target Andrew Vaughn's batting prop and Freddy Peralta's strikeout over.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the MIL vs CHC game? A: Andrew Vaughn meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected batting average boost.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.
Q: What time is the MIL vs CHC game? A: Game time is TBD.
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