Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
MIL vs CHC: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 22)
Last updated: October 22, 2025
Game Time: TBD
Today's Setup
The Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) face off against the Chicago Cubs (CHC) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Wrigley Field. With no betting odds currently available, bettors will have to rely on player analytics and matchup data to find edges in this contest.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Freddy Peralta (MIL):
Freddy Peralta brings a high-velocity, power pitching approach to the mound. His arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). A quintessential velocity-heavy pitcher, Peralta's fastball sets the tone, complemented by deceptive off-speed pitches.
The CHC lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Peralta's arsenal.
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
Matthew Boyd counters with a diverse pitch mix, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph), and a Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph). Boyd's pitch-mix artistry aims to disrupt timing and induce soft contact.
The MIL lineup averages .259 this season with a projected xBA of .265 against Boyd's offerings.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For MIL vs Matthew Boyd:
- The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .265 vs Boyd's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%).
- Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-33 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.0%).
For CHC vs Freddy Peralta:
- The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 vs Peralta's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+1.8%).
- Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%).
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Andrew Vaughn shows a significant batting advantage against Boyd, making him a standout prop candidate.
- Freddy Peralta's strikeout potential is elevated with the Cubs' increased K-rate projection.
- Umpire data is unavailable, introducing uncertainty in prop betting for this matchup.
- Overall, focus on Vaughn for batting props and Peralta for strikeout props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the MIL vs CHC game? A: Andrew Vaughn meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in expected batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding an element of uncertainty to betting decisions.
Q: What time is the MIL vs CHC game? A: Game time is TBD.
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