Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
MIL vs CHC: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 20)
Last updated: October 20, 2025
Game Time: TBD
Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be a compelling matchup. Although the betting odds remain unavailable, both teams bring intriguing pitching duels and lineup contrasts to the table. Analyzing these elements could provide crucial insights for bettors looking to find value.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs Matthew Boyd
Freddy Peralta (MIL):
Freddy Peralta brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring:
- Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph)
- Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph)
- Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph)
- Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph)
Peralta is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a fastball-centric approach, complemented by a solid changeup to keep hitters off balance. The Cubs lineup, which averages a .253 BA this season, projects to a .248 xBA against Peralta's pitches, suggesting a potential edge for the Brewers' right-hander.
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
Matthew Boyd counters with a varied pitch mix:
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph)
- Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph)
- Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph)
- Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph)
- Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph)
Boyd is a pitch-mix artist, leaning on his changeup and slider to disrupt hitters' timing. The Brewers lineup, hitting .259 on the season, is projected to improve slightly to a .265 xBA against Boyd, indicating potential vulnerability in Boyd's approach.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Brewers vs Boyd:
- The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .265 against Boyd's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-33 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.0%)
For Cubs vs Peralta:
- The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season and projects to .248 against Peralta's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+1.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Brewers: Projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
- Cubs: Projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Andrew Vaughn presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Matthew Boyd, with a projected xBA increase of 51 points.
- Freddy Peralta's strikeout potential is high against a Cubs lineup projected to strike out significantly more than their season average.
- Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to prop bets based on strikeouts and walks.
- Overall, the Brewers appear to have both pitching and hitting edges in this matchup.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Andrew Vaughn is our top prop recommendation, showing a significant projected increase in batting average against Boyd.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies at this time.
Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Game time has not been announced.
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