Game Time: TBD
1. Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers in what promises to be an intriguing pitcher's duel. With Quinn Priester on the mound for the Brewers and Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers, both teams will look to leverage their starting pitchers' strengths. Betting odds for this game are not available yet, adding an element of anticipation for this matchup.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Quinn Priester vs. Clayton Kershaw
Quinn Priester (MIL):
Priester brings a diverse six-pitch arsenal to the table, featuring a Sinker (43% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (29% usage, 86.0 mph), and Cutter (17% usage, 92.3 mph), complemented by a Curveball (9% usage, 80.6 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 88.4 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (0% usage, 94.9 mph). This repertoire suggests a pitcher who relies on movement and velocity to keep hitters off-balance. The Dodgers lineup, however, averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against Priester's arsenal, indicating they might be well-equipped to handle his mix.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Kershaw, a seasoned veteran, uses his Slider (42% usage, 85.7 mph) and Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 89.1 mph) as his primary weapons, backed by a Curveball (17% usage, 72.1 mph) and a Splitter (4% usage, 83.2 mph). The Brewers lineup, which averages .253 this season, is projected to hit .245 against Kershaw's arsenal, suggesting a potential struggle to figure out his pitches.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Brewers lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .245 against Kershaw's arsenal, indicating a slight disadvantage. Joey Ortiz stands out with a significant increase, moving from a season BA of .210 to an xBA of .245 (+35 points), while his K% goes from 16.3% to 19.5% (+3.2%). On the downside, Isaac Collins sees the biggest decrease, dropping from a season BA of .259 to an xBA of .225 (-34 points), with his K% increasing from 23.7% to 31.2% (+7.5%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup, with a season average of .260, projects slightly better at .264 against Priester's mix. Tommy Edman experiences the largest increase, improving from a season BA of .223 to an xBA of .310 (+87 points), with his K% dropping significantly from 16.5% to 10.9% (-5.6%). Conversely, Will Smith sees a decline, with his season BA of .323 falling to an xBA of .271 (-52 points), while his K% rises mildly from 18.3% to 21.0% (+2.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 24.3% against Kershaw — up 3.8% from their 20.5% season average, hinting at a heightened strikeout risk. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' projected K-rate stands at 18.4% against Priester, slightly down by 0.3% from their 18.8% season average, suggesting stable contact rates.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Tommy Edman (.223 → .310, +87 points) meets both criteria with an xBA over .300 and a significant boost of +87 points, making him a potential batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team presents a strikeout opportunity as neither meets the required criteria for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Tommy Edman - his .310 xBA against Priester's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +87 point boost.
