Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Mets vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 07)
Last updated: September 07, 2025Game Time: 9/7, 01:40PM
Today's Setup
The New York Mets are set to clash with the Cincinnati Reds in what promises to be an engaging matchup. The Reds come in as the slight favorites with a -123 line, while the Mets are the underdogs at +102. Despite the odds, 52% of the betting money is backing the Mets, indicating a potentially close encounter.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat (NYM) vs Hunter Greene (CIN)
Brandon Sproat (NYM):
Unfortunately, detailed pitch arsenal data for Brandon Sproat isn't available. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of his pitching style or the Mets' lineup's performance against his pitches cannot be provided. For bettors, this lack of data adds an element of unpredictability to Sproat's performance.
Hunter Greene (CIN):
Hunter Greene features a high-velocity repertoire:
- Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 99.4 mph)
- Slider (35% usage, 89.5 mph)
- Splitter (10% usage, 88.4 mph)
- Curveball (0% usage, 84.0 mph)
Greene is a classic power pitcher, relying heavily on velocity, particularly through his fastball and slider. The Mets lineup has a season average of .257 and projects similarly at .257 against Greene’s arsenal, indicating a consistent challenge for the hitters.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Mets vs. Hunter Greene:
- The Mets lineup averages .257 this season, projecting the same against Greene's arsenal.
- Biggest increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .311 (+50 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 19.3% (+0.3%)
- Biggest decrease: Brandon Nimmo: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-17 points), Season K% 20.8% → Arsenal K% 24.5% (+3.7%)
For the Reds vs. Brandon Sproat:
- Unfortunately, no data is available to analyze the Reds lineup against Sproat's pitching.
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Mets:
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs Hunter Greene — up 2.3% from their 20.9% season average. This suggests a moderate increase in strikeout potential, though not extreme enough to warrant a strong strikeout prop bet.
For the Reds:
- Due to the lack of detailed data on Sproat, the Reds' projected K-rate remains unchanged at 22.5%, aligning with their season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.261 → .311, +50 points) meets betting lean criteria! Consider a batting prop, given his notable increase in expected performance against Greene’s arsenal.
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for strikeout props.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Juan Soto stands out with a substantial xBA increase against Hunter Greene, making him a strong candidate for batting props.
- Hunter Greene's power pitching style may pose a consistent challenge to the Mets, though not enough to significantly elevate strikeout props.
- No umpire data further adds uncertainty to any pitcher or batter prop recommendations.
- Betting Recommendation: Focus on Juan Soto’s batting prop given the lack of compelling strikeout prop opportunities.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Reds game? A: Juan Soto stands out as a strong candidate, meeting our strict batting criteria against Greene's arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess their influence on the game.
Q: What time is the Mets vs Reds game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/7 at 01:40PM.
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