Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Mets vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)
Last updated: September 05, 2025
Game Time: 9/5, 06:40PM
Brief Intro
Tonight, the New York Mets face off against the Cincinnati Reds in a matchup that sees the Mets as slight favorites. According to DraftKings, the Mets are positioned at a -126 favorite, while the Reds sit as +104 underdogs, with 57% of the money supporting the Mets. This intriguing matchup highlights key pitcher-batter dynamics and betting angles for savvy bettors.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs Andrew Abbott
David Peterson (NYM):
Peterson employs a diverse pitch mix with his Sinker (29% usage, 91.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 92.2 mph), Slider (20% usage, 84.5 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 84.4 mph), and Curveball (13% usage, 78.6 mph). This arsenal suggests a velocity-mixed approach, aiming to disrupt timing and induce grounders.
The Reds lineup has averaged .2649 this season, but projects to a .2515 xBA against Peterson's varied arsenal, indicating potential struggles against his pitch mix.
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Abbott's approach leans heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 92.7 mph), complemented by a Changeup (20% usage, 84.7 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 80.9 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 82.7 mph), and a Cutter (4% usage, 88.6 mph). Abbott's reliance on his fastball suggests a velocity-driven strategy.
The Mets lineup, averaging .2606 on the season, projects a favorable .2699 xBA against Abbott's pitching style, indicating potential offensive opportunities for New York.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Mets vs Abbott:
- The Mets lineup averages .2606 this season but projects to .2699 vs Abbott's arsenal.
- Biggest increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .259 → xBA vs arsenal .318 (+59 points), Season K% 19.2% → Arsenal K% 20.1% (+0.9%)
- Biggest decrease: Starling Marte: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .289 (-1 point), Season K% 14.9% → Arsenal K% 20.4% (+5.5%)
For the Reds vs Peterson:
- The Reds lineup averages .2649 but projects to .2515 vs Peterson's arsenal.
- Biggest decrease: Elly Cruz: Season BA .269 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-34 points), Season K% 25.9% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+4.6%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 21.3% vs Abbott — up 1.4% from their 19.9% season average.
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 19.8% vs Peterson — up 0.2% from their 19.6% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.259 → .318, +59 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Juan Soto shows a strong advantage against Abbott's arsenal, making him a key player to watch.
- The Reds may struggle against Peterson's diverse pitch mix, with Elly Cruz notably disadvantaged.
- The umpire assignment is TBA, introducing potential volatility in prop bets.
- Overall, the Mets' lineup appears to have the upper hand, especially against Abbott's fastball-heavy approach.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Reds game? A: Juan Soto is highlighted as a strong betting prop due to his favorable matchup against Abbott.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies are currently unknown.
Q: What time is the Mets vs Reds game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/5, 06:40PM.
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