September 27, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Mets vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 27)

Last updated: September 27, 2025

Game Time: 9/27, 04:10PM

Matchup Setup

The New York Mets travel to Miami to take on the Marlins in a matchup with significant playoff implications. The Mets, favored at -137, are backed by 88% of the money on DraftKings, showcasing strong market confidence. Meanwhile, the Marlins are +112 underdogs looking to upset the odds.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Clay Holmes vs Eury Pérez

Clay Holmes (NYM):

Holmes brings a diverse pitching arsenal featuring a Sinker (41% usage, 93.7 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 81.9 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 88.1 mph), Slider (11% usage, 85.3 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 89.8 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage, 93.2 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Holmes relies on varying speeds and movement to keep hitters off balance. The Marlins lineup, with a season average of .265, projects a slightly lower xBA of .263 against Holmes' offerings.

Eury Pérez (MIA):

Pérez, a velocity-heavy pitcher, utilizes a Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage, 97.8 mph), Slider (23% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (8% usage, 89.6 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 82.7 mph), and a Sinker (1% usage, 96.6 mph). The Mets lineup, averaging .253 this season, projects an improved xBA of .260 against Pérez, suggesting potential vulnerability against New York's hitters.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For NYM vs Eury Pérez:

The Mets lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .260 vs Pérez's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .306 (+41 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 20.2% (+0.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Brandon Nimmo: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .248 (-16 points), Season K% 21.6% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (+3.0%)

For MIA vs Clay Holmes:

The Marlins lineup averages .265 this season and projects to .264 vs Holmes' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jakob Marsee: Season BA .307 → xBA vs arsenal .343 (+36 points), Season K% 20.7% → Arsenal K% 18.8% (-1.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Griffin Conine: Season BA .260 → xBA vs arsenal .210 (-50 points), Season K% 27.5% → Arsenal K% 32.9% (+5.4%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mets' projected K-rate is 22.4% vs Eury Pérez — up 2.3% from their 20.0% season average.
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 19.0% vs Clay Holmes — up 0.2% from their 18.9% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.265 → .306, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Eury Pérez strikeout OVER - Mets' K-rate jumps to 22.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Juan Soto shows a significant projected batting average increase against Pérez, making him a prime candidate for prop bets.
Eury Pérez has a favorable strikeout matchup against a Mets lineup with a projected K-rate increase.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop dynamics.
Back the Mets at -137 given market confidence and offensive advantages.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Marlins game? A: Juan Soto's projected increase in batting average makes him a standout prop opportunity.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which makes it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Mets vs Marlins game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/27, 04:10PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---