Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Mets vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)
Last updated: September 26, 2025Game Time: 9/26, 07:10PM
Game Overview
Tonight, the New York Mets head to Miami to face the Marlins in an NL East showdown. The Mets, currently favored at -136 on DraftKings, have drawn significant betting interest with 89% of the money backing them. The Marlins, underdogs at +112, will look to challenge this narrative with their home-field advantage.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat vs Sandy Alcantara
Brandon Sproat (NYM):
Brandon Sproat brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound with a focus on velocity and movement. His pitch selection includes a Sinker (36% usage, 95.6 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 84.4 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 79.8 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 89.8 mph), Four-Seam (10% usage, 96.4 mph), and Slider (3% usage, 89.7 mph). The Marlins lineup has averaged .266 this season and projects to a similar .266 xBA against Sproat's varied offerings, indicating a balanced matchup.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA):
Sandy Alcantara counters with his own formidable array of pitches: Changeup (23% usage, 90.5 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 97.2 mph), Four-Seam (21% usage, 97.6 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 85.4 mph), and Slider (16% usage, 89.4 mph). The Mets lineup, with a season average of .260, is expected to hit slightly better at a .270 xBA against Alcantara’s high-velocity mix, suggesting potential vulnerability.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For NYM vs Alcantara:
- The Mets lineup, which averages .260 this season, projects to .270 vs Alcantara's arsenal.
- Brett Baty shows the biggest increase: Season BA .255 → xBA vs arsenal .285 (+30 points), Season K% 25.1% → Arsenal K% 21.5% (-3.6%).
- Starling Marte sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .281 (-2 points), Season K% 14.6% → Arsenal K% 20.3% (+5.7%).
For MIA vs Sproat:
- The Marlins lineup averages .266 this season and projects a similar .266 xBA vs Sproat's arsenal.
- Jakob Marsee boosts significantly: Season BA .307 → xBA vs arsenal .348 (+41 points), Season K% 20.7% → Arsenal K% 18.6% (-2.1%).
- Otto Lopez suffers the biggest drop: Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (-43 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 23.5% (+9.6%).
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 20.8% vs Alcantara — up 0.3% from their 20.5% season average, suggesting slight K prop value.
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 19.3% vs Sproat — down 0.5% from their 19.8% season average, indicating more contact potential.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jakob Marsee (.307 → .348, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No strikeout prop opportunities meet our criteria for this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jakob Marsee presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant xBA increase.
- Brett Baty's performance against Alcantara's arsenal indicates a potential edge.
- The absence of an announced umpire adds an element of unpredictability to prop markets.
- Overall, the game presents limited strikeout prop opportunities, focusing more on batting props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Marlins game? A: Jakob Marsee shows the strongest prop potential with a notable xBA boost.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding volatility to the prop market.
Q: What time is the Mets vs Marlins game? A: The game starts at 07:10PM on September 26.
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