Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Mets vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)
Last updated: September 23, 2025
Game Time: 9/23, 07:40PM
Matchup Setup
The New York Mets head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs in an intriguing clash. The game presents a compelling pitching matchup with both teams featuring pitchers with diverse arsenals. As of now, betting odds are not available for this game, making it a challenging yet exciting opportunity for bettors to find value through deep analysis.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson (NYM) vs Cade Horton (CHC)
David Peterson (NYM):
David Peterson brings a versatile pitch mix to the mound, featuring a Sinker (29% usage, 91.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Slider (19% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.5 mph), and Curveball (14% usage, 78.7 mph). His varied arsenal makes him a pitch-mix artist, capable of keeping hitters off balance. The Cubs lineup has averaged .254 this season and projects to a slightly higher xBA of .256 against Peterson's offerings.Cade Horton (CHC):
Cade Horton counters with a power-heavy approach, relying heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 95.7 mph) and complementing it with a Sweeper (21% usage, 83.4 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.0 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 83.9 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 95.2 mph), and rarely-used Slider. The Mets lineup, which averages .258 this season, projects to a slightly increased xBA of .260 against Horton's fastball-heavy arsenal.Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Mets vs Horton:
- Juan Soto: Season BA .267 → xBA vs arsenal .314 (+47 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 18.9% (-0.4%)
- Ian Happ: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .274 (+33 points), Season K% 22.3% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (-1.7%)
- Justin Turner: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .262 (-43 points), Season K% 16.8% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (-1.1%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 22.3% vs Cade Horton — up 1.9% from their 20.3% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 20.9% vs David Peterson — up 1.3% from their 19.5% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.267 → .314, +47 points) meets betting lean criteria!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Juan Soto presents a strong batting advantage against Cade Horton's arsenal, making him a prime candidate for hitting props.
- Ian Happ shows significant improvement in projected batting average against David Peterson, indicating potential value in his hitting props.
- The absence of umpire data introduces uncertainty, affecting the reliability of prop bets based on strikeout or walk tendencies.
- Given the current data, the best betting focus is on batter props rather than strikeout props, due to the moderate increases in K-rates.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Cubs game? A: Juan Soto stands out with a significant projected batting average increase, making him the top betting prop.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies are unknown at this time.
Q: What time is the Mets vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/23, 07:40PM.
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