Game Time: 7/11, 08:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The New York Mets travel to Kansas City to face the Royals in a matchup that sees the Mets as a significant -144 favorite, with 78% of the betting money backing them on DraftKings. The Royals are the +118 underdogs, looking to upset the odds in this intriguing clash. With Kodai Senga on the mound for the Mets and Michael Wacha pitching for the Royals, this game promises an exciting duel.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Kodai Senga vs Michael Wacha
Kodai Senga (NYM):
Kodai Senga offers a diverse arsenal that includes a Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 94.7 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 90.0 mph), Slider (10% usage, 83.3 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 79.7 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 89.0 mph), and Curveball (2% usage, 69.2 mph). This pitch-mix artist faces a Royals lineup that averages .248 this season with a projected xBA of .281 against Senga's arsenal.
Michael Wacha (KC):
Michael Wacha counters with a Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 93.2 mph), Changeup (26% usage, 80.1 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 88.1 mph), Slider (12% usage, 85.0 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.6 mph), and Curveball (8% usage, 75.1 mph). The Mets lineup averages .250 this season, with a projected xBA of .277 against Wacha’s offerings.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For NYM vs Michael Wacha:
The Mets lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .277 vs Wacha's arsenal. Key performers include Juan Soto, who sees the biggest increase: Season BA .269 → xBA vs arsenal .336 (+67 points), Season K% 17.2% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-0.3%). Ronny Mauricio faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-12 points), Season K% 8.9% → Arsenal K% 14.4% (+5.5%).
For KC vs Kodai Senga:
The Royals lineup averages .248 this season but projects to .281 vs Senga's arsenal. Jac Caglianone leads with the most significant increase: Season BA .151 → xBA vs arsenal .326 (+175 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 14.8% (-7.2%). Maikel Garcia suffers the largest decrease: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (-99 points), Season K% 13.4% → Arsenal K% 32.8% (+19.4%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Mets' projected K-rate is 19.2% vs Wacha — up 0.4% from their 18.8% season average. Meanwhile, the Royals' projected K-rate is 17.7% vs Senga, slightly up 0.1% from their 17.6% season average. These minor fluctuations suggest limited prop opportunities in strikeout markets.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire tendencies, bettors should be cautious with strikeout and walk props.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Juan Soto (.269 → .336, +67) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Jac Caglianone (.151 → .326, +175) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Nick Loftin (.193 → .301, +108) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant changes in strikeout rates suggest limited prop opportunities.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Juan Soto - his .336 xBA against Wacha's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +67 point boost. Additionally, Jac Caglianone's matchup against Senga offers a .326 xBA, marking another potential lean with a +175 point boost. Nick Loftin also presents a viable opportunity with a .301 xBA and a +108 point increase.
