Game Time: 7/10, 12:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The New York Mets will face the Baltimore Orioles in an intriguing matchup at Camden Yards. The Mets are favored at -142 according to DraftKings, while the Orioles stand as +117 underdogs. Notably, 83% of the betting public is backing the Mets, setting the stage for a potentially one-sided affair.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs. Charlie Morton
David Peterson (NYM):
Peterson's pitch arsenal includes a Sinker (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (21% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.1 mph), and Curveball (12% usage, 78.6 mph). As a pitcher who relies on a balanced mix with a preference for sinkers, Peterson should be prepared for the Orioles lineup, which averages .243 this season with a projected xBA of .243 against his arsenal.
Charlie Morton (BAL):
Morton employs a Curveball (38% usage, 81.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 94.1 mph), Sinker (13% usage, 93.9 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.5 mph), and Cutter (8% usage, 88.3 mph). His curve-heavy approach could challenge the Mets, who average .252 this season but project to a .261 against Morton’s pitch selection.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For NYM vs. Charlie Morton:
The Mets lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .261 against Morton's arsenal. Juan Soto exhibits a notable increase, with a season BA of .269 rising to an xBA of .33 (+61 points), and his K% decreases from 17.2% to 13.2% (-4.0%). Conversely, Jesse Winker shows a decrease, with his BA dropping from .232 to an xBA of .21 (-22 points), and his K% rising from 26.3% to 35.5% (+9.3%).
For BAL vs. David Peterson:
The Orioles lineup averages .235 this season and projects to .243 against Peterson’s arsenal. Jordan Westburg sees a BA increase from .248 to an xBA of .273 (+25 points), and his K% decreases from 26.1% to 21.2% (-4.9%). However, Ryan O'Hearn experiences a slight decrease, with his BA dropping from .286 to .283 (-3 points), while his K% increases from 17.1% to 20.8% (+3.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Mets' projected K-rate is 22.2% against Morton, up 3.2% from their 19.0% season average, indicating potential strikeout value. Meanwhile, the Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.7% against Peterson, slightly down 0.4% from their 26.1% season average, suggesting a more contact-oriented approach.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Jansen Visconti
Jansen Visconti will be calling balls and strikes, with a slight decrease in strikeouts (-1%) and a marginal increase in walks (+1%). These mixed tendencies could slightly favor hitters, as increased walks typically benefit offensive production.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Juan Soto stands out with a potential batting lean: his .33 xBA against Morton’s arsenal surpasses the .300 threshold, along with a significant +61 point boost over his season average. No other batters meet the criteria for a lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Mets' projected K-rate against Morton does not meet the threshold for a lean. However, their increase suggests a potential interest in Morton’s strikeout props if they align with market expectations.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Juan Soto - his .33 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +61 point boost.
No significant strikeout prop leans meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
