August 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Marlins vs Sox: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 17)

Last updated: August 17, 2025

Game Time: 8/17, 01:35PM

Brief Intro

The Miami Marlins are set to face off against the Boston Red Sox in a compelling matchup at Fenway Park. With the Red Sox positioned as a -250 favorite and the Marlins as +200 underdogs, Boston is heavily favored, attracting 90% of the betting money. This game promises intriguing dynamics, especially with the pitching duel on display.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Janson Junk (MIA) vs Garrett Crochet (BOS)

Janson Junk (MIA):

Janson Junk brings a diverse arsenal to the mound:

Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 93.6 mph)
Slider (27% usage, 86.8 mph)
Sweeper (17% usage, 82.2 mph)
Curveball (11% usage, 82.4 mph)
Changeup (7% usage, 88.3 mph)

Junk is a pitcher who utilizes a varied pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. The Red Sox lineup, batting .264 on the season, projects a slightly lower .238 against Junk's offerings.

Garrett Crochet (BOS):

Crochet's powerful repertoire includes:

Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 96.3 mph)
Cutter (29% usage, 91.0 mph)
Sweeper (14% usage, 82.6 mph)
Sinker (14% usage, 95.7 mph)
Changeup (4% usage, 88.1 mph)

Garrett Crochet is known for his velocity-heavy approach. The Marlins lineup, hitting .264 this season, is expected to improve slightly to .273 against Crochet's arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Marlins vs Garrett Crochet: The Marlins typically bat .264 but are projected to improve to .273 against Crochet. Key performers include:

Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .307 (+57 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 14.7% (-7.8%)
Derek Hill: Season BA .210 → xBA vs arsenal .189 (-21 points), Season K% 36.6% → Arsenal K% 33.4% (-3.2%)

For Red Sox vs Janson Junk: The Red Sox, with a season average of .264, face a projected decline to .238 against Junk. Noteworthy changes are:

Jarren Duran: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .208 (-53 points), Season K% 23.8% → Arsenal K% 29.6% (+5.8%)
Roman Anthony: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-42 points), Season K% 26.4% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (-3.1%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Marlins' projected K-rate is 16.6% vs Crochet — down 3.4% from their 20.1% season average, indicating potential for more contact.
The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 23.1% vs Junk — up 2.1% from their 21.0% season average, suggesting a possible increase in strikeouts.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .307, +57 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No strikeout props meet our criteria in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Agustín Ramírez shows a significant batting edge against Garrett Crochet, meeting our prop criteria.
The Marlins' lineup projects lower strikeouts against Crochet, suggesting contact opportunities.
Umpire data remains unavailable, adding uncertainty to props and game flow predictions.
The Red Sox's increased projected strikeouts against Janson Junk might open opportunities for betting against their offensive output.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Red Sox game? A: Agustín Ramírez stands out with a significant increase in expected batting average against Garrett Crochet.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the Marlins vs Red Sox game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/17, 01:35PM.

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