Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Marlins vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)
Last updated: September 23, 2025Game Time: 9/23, 06:45PM
Game Overview
The Miami Marlins travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies in a pivotal matchup. With the Phillies favored at -227 on DraftKings, the Marlins sit as +183 underdogs. Despite the odds, 59% of the money is backing the Marlins, indicating strong public interest in the underdog.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Edward Cabrera vs Cristopher Sánchez
Edward Cabrera (MIA):
- Changeup (25% usage, 94.2 mph), Curveball (23% usage, 83.9 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 96.8 mph), Slider (18% usage, 88.5 mph), Four-Seam (13% usage, 97.0 mph)
Edward Cabrera is a dynamic pitcher known for his velocity-heavy arsenal. The Philadelphia lineup, however, averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Cabrera's pitch mix.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):
- Sinker (46% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (38% usage, 86.2 mph), Slider (17% usage, 85.7 mph)
Cristopher Sánchez relies heavily on his sinker, complemented by a solid changeup. The Marlins' lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .261 against Sánchez's arsenal, indicating a neutral matchup.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Miami vs Cristopher Sánchez:
- The Marlins lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .261 against Sánchez's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Dane Myers: Season BA .235 → xBA vs arsenal .292 (+57 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 18.5% (-4.6%)
- Biggest Decrease: Otto Lopez: Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .216 (-32 points), Season K% 13.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+4.1%)
For Philadelphia vs Edward Cabrera:
- The Phillies lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .254 against Cabrera's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Max Kepler: Season BA .217 → xBA vs arsenal .243 (+26 points), Season K% 19.2% → Arsenal K% 22.5% (+3.3%)
- Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-71 points), Season K% 26.7% → Arsenal K% 27.3% (+0.6%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Marlins’ projected K-rate is 18.1% vs Cristopher Sánchez — down 0.5% from their 18.6% season average.
- The Phillies’ projected K-rate is 23.1% vs Edward Cabrera — up 0.5% from their 22.7% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Dane Myers (.235 → .292, +57 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No strikeout prop opportunities meet our strict criteria for this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Dane Myers shows a significant batting advantage against Cristopher Sánchez, making him a strong prop candidate.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities due to minimal K-rate differentials.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding unpredictability to potential props.
- Overall, the Marlins show potential value as underdogs with public backing.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Phillies game? A: Dane Myers meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected batting edge.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making it hard to assess.
Q: What time is the Marlins vs Phillies game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/23 at 06:45PM.
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